Updated ,first published
Six days’ worth of fuel supply will be released from the national reserves in an unprecedented effort to stem panic buying amid fears of country-wide shortages as the oil crisis squeezes the global supply.
The hundreds of millions of litres of fuel Energy Minister Chris Bowen will pump into the nation’s supply is aimed at shoring up short-term confidence, but he resisted announcing further measures to ration fuel if the Iran war continued to affect shipping from the Middle East.
Labor faces questions over its ability to deal with a long-run squeeze on global oil supply, after successive federal governments ignored for decades the warnings of experts and public servants that Australia was not prepared for a major energy shock.
As the war between Iran and the US and Israel stretches into its second week, attacks on the Gulf states have closed the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20 per cent of global oil supply.
Fuel prices have shot up to an average of around $2.20 in Sydney and Melbourne and analysts have forecast that unless ships start moving through the strait again soon, petrol prices could rise above $3 a litre.
Farmers and regional service stations are reporting that local distribution networks are breaking down, as demand from nervous customers drives a doubling of typical national fuel consumption.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen on Friday announced the release of 760 million litres of petrol and diesel into the local market. It will be drawn from the domestic holdings of fuel companies, representing 20 per cent of the national stockpile, over the coming days and weeks.
He also said the government was not currently contemplating a cut to fuel excise taxes, which would lower petrol prices, nor enacting rationing powers to control the volume of fuel motorists can buy.
Friday’s fuel release swiftly followed Thursday’s announcement that Ampol Australia to supply the domestic market with fuel containing higher sulphur content, which would otherwise be exported. Ampol will prioritise the fuel to regional suppliers.
US President Donald Trump’s initial predictions that the war would be over within days have given way to uncertainty as the regime in Tehran has fought back with greater ferocity than the White House anticipated, according to reports in The New York Times.
Bowen assured drivers that Australia’s fuel imports had not been disrupted, urged motorists to stop buying up extra petrol, but acknowledged people’s fears and conceded the future was unknowable.
“It’s understandable that Australians are concerned about the fuel supply in Australia,” he said.
“These international circumstances are uncertain. Let’s not kid ourselves that everyone knows exactly how the next few weeks are going to play out, because no one does. What governments can do is respond to the circumstances as they arrive.”
Bowen’s assurances were challenged by opposition energy spokesman Dan Tehan, who said the energy minister should have moved sooner to address fuel security fears.
“There is nothing that has reassured me and reassured the Australian people, because it’s clear [Bowen] doesn’t have a plan,” Tehan said.
The National Farmers Federation on Thursday wanted the government to consider more drastic measures, such as taking over regional fuel supply chains under the powers of the Liquid Fuel Emergency Act.
The government’s last fuel security inquiry, the 2020 Liquid Fuel Security Review, warned that Australia was more reliant on imported fuel than many of its peers and must boost its holdings.
NRMA spokesman Peter Khoury said his organisation and many others had campaigned for years to boost Australia’s fuel reserves as a defence against shocks such as the current oil crisis – despite the significant cost to the public purse.
“The NRMA has long held the view that we need to increase our strategic reserve, acknowledging it means an investment in infrastructure, but I think the last two weeks have shown why,” Khoury said.
Bowen said this week it could cost $20 billion over four years to build the infrastructure needed to hold enough fuel to comply with the International Energy Agency’s requirement of 90 days’ fuel.
In the 10 years up to 2020, Australia’s holdings of petrol, diesel and jet fuel ranged between 14 and 25 days’ worth of consumption.
Japan holds up to 250 days, the UK stores 51 days’ worth of liquid fuel – with greater domestic oil production capacity – and the US, which is a net exporter, holds around 400 million barrels of oil in reserve – or enough combined public and private holdings for over 115 days.
The Albanese government created a minimum stock obligation in 2023, soon after it took office, increasing holdings to 36 days’ supply of petrol, 34 days of diesel and 32 days of jet fuel stashed at facilities across the country.
Independent fuel suppliers, who play an outsized role in regional Australia, have reported difficulty in filling orders as major companies restrict distribution.
Australia has lost around 70 per cent of its fuel refining capacity in the past 15 years, and now imports 90 per cent of its supplies. The Commonwealth financial support for the two remaining oil refineries, Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery in Victoria and Ampol’s Lytton plant in Brisbane, runs out in June 2027.
When Opposition Leader Angus Taylor was energy minister in 2020, the Morrison government spent $94 million to establish a stockpile of 1.7 million barrels of oil, stored in the US.
In 2022, reserves were released from this stockpile when the government sold the fuel for around $230 million as part of a global effort to calm the world’s oil markets after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered the last energy crisis.
Analysts have predicted the global benchmark Brent oil price could reach US$200 a barrel, double the current price.
A rule of thumb states that for every US$10 rise in the Brent price, petrol prices rise 10¢ at the bowser in Australia. A doubling of oil prices would add a dollar to local petrol prices.
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