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Traders in online prediction markets expect the federal government shutdown to last more than two weeks, signaling waning confidence in a near-term deal as negotiations in Washington remain at a standstill.
Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi give a 64% chance that the government shutdown will last just over 21 days. The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, sits just north of $2.5 million.
Meanwhile, 72% of traders on Polymarket expect the shutdown to last at least two weeks, with about $1.5 million wagered on the market.
TRUMP SAYS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN LAYOFFS ARE ‘UP TO’ DEMS AS STANDOFF CONTINUES
Around 23% of market participants see the shutdown ending between Oct. 10 and Oct. 14, according to Polymarket’s trading data.
The federal government shut down at 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday, forcing agencies to send home workers in roles not considered essential.
TRUMP SAYS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN LAYOFFS ARE ‘UP TO’ DEMS AS STANDOFF CONTINUES
These furloughs are temporary; once Congress resolves the standoff, employees typically return to work and receive back pay. As a result, past government shutdowns have been more political theater than economic shock, with markets and jobs rebounding quickly.
This time, though, the Trump administration has warned that some furloughed workers may not return, turning a routine disruption into a potential blow to an already fragile labor market.
On Sunday, President Donald Trump placed the blame squarely on Democrats for the government shutdown.
Trump told reporters before boarding Marine One that the looming layoffs are “up to them,” referring to Democrats who voted against a bill to fund the government and avert the shutdown.
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