Europe is being edged out of the global liquified natural gas market as Asian buyers outbid for limited cargoes, with ship-tracking data showing several tankers changing course mid-voyage and close to a dozen Atlantic shipments being re-directed.
The race for LNG intensifies as the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy trade point responsible for roughly 20% of global LNG supply, remains hostage to the Iranians authorities in retaliation for missile attacks from the United States and Israel nearly one month ago.
Supply disruptions have intensified after strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, the world’s largest LNG producer, forced the Qatari energy producer to declare force majeure on Tuesday for contracts with Belgium, Italy and Poland.
While Europe accounts for a small share of supply from the energy chokepoint and is mostly trying to cope with price spikes and mitigate LNG supply in a few countries, Asian countries get 80% of their energy supply from Hormuz, with Taiwan, a key chip manufacturer, reporting on Tuesday that it has gas supplies for another 11 days.
Since the outbreak of the Middle East war on February 28, the number of diverted LNG tankers has continued to grow, with the last Qatari cargoes expected to arrive in the UK and Italy by 27 March, according to data from the intelligence firm Kpler.
“We have 11 LNG cargoes that have been confirmed as diverted from Europe to Asia, plus two that have been diverted from Europe to Egypt and one from Europe to Turkey,” Laura Page, Insight manager LNG & Natural Gas at Kpler, told Euronews.
The escalation has pushed global LNG prices higher amid concerns about the tighter supply of all LNG moving across the Atlantic, coming at a critical moment as Europe begins its gas storage refill season.
“Thankfully, we are heading out of the winter heating season now, so gas demand will be falling, but the crisis poses major risks for Europe during this upcoming restocking season and could challenge Europe next winter if storage levels don’t get up to sufficient levels,” Page said.
The Dutch TTF natural gas benchmark — Europe’s key wholesale price — settled near €53–€54 per megawatt‑hour (MWh) on Tuesday, having spiked above €60 earlier in the day. While slightly lower than mid‑week highs, prices remain far above pre‑conflict levels.
Asian buyers are currently paying about $1–$3/MMBtu — prices measured by the JKM benchmark — more than their European counterparts for spot LNG — a relatively small but significant premium that is shaping trade patterns.
The higher returns are prompting traders to divert flexible cargoes eastward, where shipping costs are more attractive, while Europe continues to vie for the limited LNG supply.
Italy, Belgium, Poland seek alternatives
Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, is visiting Algeria on Wednesday as Rome scrambles to replace gas supplies disrupted by Qatar, which accounts for 30% of the country’s annual gas needs.
A study published on Tuesday by the environmental think tank ECCO posits that Italy could replace Qatari LNG with renewables and energy efficiency within a year.
The installation of 10 gigawatts of new renewable capacity per year would reduce gas consumption by 2.5 billion cubic metres, equivalent to 40% of Qatar’s imports, ECCO argues.
Other measures include increased energy efficiency in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors, and electrification — still counting on Algerian gas to mitigate the gap.
“For the remaining 15% – amounting to one billion cubic metres per year out of a total of 6.4 billion cubic metres – the government could leverage existing gas infrastructure, in particular the pipelines connecting Italy to Algeria,” reads the study.
In Belgium, the Qatari supply disruption is slightly milder, affecting roughly 8% of the LNG imported at the Zeebrugge terminal.
The country’s energy transmission network, Fluxys, said it is actively seeking alternative sources to cover the shortfall, with LNG shipments anticipated from the United States, Nigeria and Russia. Still, Russian imports are set to be fully phased out by 2027, limiting long-term options.
Poland’s oil and gas company Orlen said the suspension of some LNG production by QatarEnergy, which accounted for less than 10% of its demand in 2025, does not pose a threat to the country’s security of gas supplies.
Orlen hailed a diversified supply portfolio and flexible trading tools, enabling the balancing of LNG supplies alongside alternative supply routes as possible solutions to offset supply losses.
US threatens EU with ‘less favourable LNG access’
Meanwhile, the United States has issued yet another ultimatum to the European Union, seizing the bloc’s vulnerability amid a surge in energy prices and potential supply shortages.
If EU lawmakers don’t accept the terms of the EU-US trade deal, with a vote due on Thursday, US Ambassador to Europe Andrew Puzder said the bloc could risk losing “favourable access” to LNG from the other side of the Atlantic.
“I don’t know what will happen with respect to energy if they don’t go forward with the agreement,” Puzder told the Financial Times on Monday.
“I think the United States will continue to want to do business with Europe, but the terms may not be as favourable. The environment certainly won’t be as favourable. And there are other buyers out there,” he said.
Under the imminent EU-US trade deal, the EU27 is expected to buy roughly $250 billion (around €212 billion) in oil, gas, and nuclear annually through 2028, totaling $750 billion (around €700 billion).
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