Security past and future, Newsletter

Key diary dates

Tuesday 6 May – Commission expected to publish roadmap on its REPowerEU initiative to phase out Russian fossil fuel imports.
Wednesday 7-Thursday 8 May – Informal meeting of EU foreign ministers in Warsaw, Poland.
Wednesday 7 May – Annual competition policy report presented in the European Parliament.

In spotlight

Commemorations for the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II will take place this week as EU-US relations appear at their lowest ebb since that time.

EU foreign ministers will gather at the Polish Army Museum in Warsaw for their twice yearly informal – so-called “Gymnich” – meeting with continued uncertainty over US attempts to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine, and continuing trade strife

US President Donald Trump pressed the 90-day pause button on imposing additional tariffs on the EU and other countries almost a month ago “to give negotiations a chance”, but there is little evidence that such talks might yield results.

Meanwhile Friedrich Merz, who this week formally takes on the chancellorship of Germany, is also expected in Warsaw for his first foreign trip in the role to meet Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

He is later expected to travel to France for a meeting with Emmanuel Macron.

Later France and Poland are expected to sign a new wide-ranging treaty covering defence and economics, a symbolic moment given uncertainty over US security guarantees.

The pact is expected to be signed on 9 May, and comes in the wake of Poland’s Tusk indicating he was open to exploring ways to be covered by France’s nuclear umbrella and for Poland to develop its own nuclear warheads to deter Russia.

Meanwhile also on 9 May Russian President Vladimir Putin will stage his annual military parade in Moscow, where he will host China’s Xi Jinping. Brussels will be keeping a close eye to see if Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico also attends, having previously warned of “consequences” for EU government heads attending.

That same day many EU foreign ministers are expected to travel from Warsaw to Lviv in Ukraine in a show of support for Kyiv in its war against Russian aggression more than three years after Putin launched a full-scale invasion.

Policy newsmakers

Shadow fleet boxing

A cross-party group of 36 members of the European Parliament penned a joint letter urging Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to take “all necessary measures” to block new sales of Greek-owned vessels to Russia, warning these transactions are helping the Kremlin sustain its shadow fleet and bypass the G7 price cap on oil. “Such irresponsible actions, aimed at financial gain, not only directly contribute to the suffering of the Ukrainian people, but also undermine European and Greek security, including causing environmental hazards,” said Petras Auštrevičius, the Lithuanian liberal lawmaker who promoted the joint letter.