Which European countries will heatwaves hit hardest by 2100?

The year 2025 was the third‑warmest on record for Europe, with March being the warmest month on record for the continent, new Copernicus data reveals.

The average temperature reached 10.41°C, which was 1.17°C above the 1991–2020 reference period.

The eastern North Atlantic, the North Sea region including northern Britain and parts of Scandinavia, the southwestern Mediterranean, and westernmost Russia saw record‑warm temperatures.

France, Russia, and Romania have been ranked as the top European countries that will be most severely impacted by global warming by 2100, according to recent Reinders Corporation data.

The research also noted that Europe’s mild climate could vanish by 2100 as every country analysed will experience regular heatwaves exceeding 36.80°C by the century’s end.

The study analysed climate modelling data, heatwave frequency, and average versus maximum temperatures across European countries.

“These are small but powerful indicators of how fast the global climate is shifting,” Gerrit Jan Reinders, CEO and climate data expert at Reinders Corporation, said. “The same forces driving these changes are already reshaping Europe, where rising heat extremes will test the resilience of our infrastructure, public health systems and way of life.”

France

France ranks as Europe’s most heatwave-vulnerable country, experiencing five heatwave events annually in the future and accumulating 115 cumulative days of extreme heat, according to Reinders.

The EU country is expected to experience average temperatures of up to 37°C by 2100, with nearly four months of the year possibly spent in heatwave conditions.

Russia

Russia faces the second-most intense heat transformation, with an overall 79.92 heatwave score.

This country will experience two annual heatwaves with the highest average temperature of any European nation at 37.99°C, reaching maximums of 39.71°C.

Russia’s traditionally frozen climate is at risk of becoming almost unrecognisable by the century’s end, according to the study.

Eastern Europe

Eastern Europe emerges as an unexpected upcoming heatwave hotspot, with Romania in third place, Moldova in fourth place, and Bulgaria in fifth place, ranking ahead of Mediterranean countries.

Romania and Moldova will face three heatwaves per year, lasting 17 cumulative days each, while Bulgaria will experience two annual heatwaves at 14 cumulative days.

Mediterranean countries

On a more positive note, the study revealed that Mediterranean countries show “surprising” resilience as traditional hot destinations.

Turkey, Greece, and Italy ranked lower than expected, in 6th, 7th, and 10th places, respectively.

Turkey will experience one heatwave event annually, lasting 13 cumulative days at 37.76°C on average.

Meanwhile, Greece will experience the longest individual heatwave durations at 20 cumulative days, but only two events annually at 36.92°C average.

Italy ranks lowest overall with just one heatwave event at nine cumulative days.

Heat stress is the leading cause of weather-related deaths and can exacerbate underlying illnesses, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, mental health issues, asthma, and can increase the risk of accidents and transmission of some infectious diseases, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).