Updated ,first published
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese can’t stop Australians buying up all the jerrycans and filling them with petrol.
The oil shock sparked by the US-Israel strikes on Iran, and the theocracy’s subsequent missile barrage, has fuelled panic the world over.
In the Philippines, the government told sweaty office workers to turn air conditioners off. In the UK motorists were advised to stay home if they didn’t need to drive.
Bunnings is out of jerrycans and Bowen is condemning reports of fuel profiteering on Facebook marketplace as “un-Australian”, but no one is contemplating shutting down schools as is happening in some poorer nations in Asia.
The Albanese government’s decision to release about 20 per cent of its fuel stockpiles, the first time liquid has been taken out of the reserve, is an admission that the nation is in a precarious spot as US President Donald Trump sends wildly mixed messages on when the war will end.
The shock has fed into ministers’ thinking on policy and framing for the budget in May, as high petrol prices drive anger after years of high inflation.
The sense of national crisis has not been alleviated, however, particularly in the regions. The government has sounded deaf to people’s concerns, while the opposition has been willing to drum up fear and anxiety.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen is a much more effective administrator than his political opponents, and the conservative press, would have you believe. But the feisty minister with a technocratic air is not the perfect messenger to soothe the country.
Bowen famously said in 2019, when Bill Shorten’s tax agenda was being assailed by critics, that, “if you don’t like our policies, don’t vote for us”. Voters took his advice.
Reports of spot shortages throughout the week demonstrated that Australia’s supply chain was clogging up as companies hoarded and ordered more fuel than they needed, and as regional customers in particular were deprived of diesel.
Bowen has not ignored the fact that regional servos were running out and has called the Facebook sales “un-Australian”. But he chose to emphasise the point that fuel was flowing as normal into ports at a time when regional Australians were frazzled and seeking answers. Bowen is already a lightning rod for hostility in towns suspicious about green energy and wind farms, so his assurances don’t land when people pull up to a servo that’s out of fuel.
The Albanese government was slow to bring farmers, fuel companies, manufacturers and others together to instil calm. Responsibility for elements of the crisis was shared between several ministers, which didn’t help. The gravity of the moment demanded a whole-of-government message.
Bowen’s style and his huge renewable energy agenda meant the official opposition and the quasi-opposition in One Nation were always going to latch onto the crisis.
“SITUATION CRITICAL”, Pauline Hanson blared on Instagram on Monday. The populist party has been using petrol shortages at regional servos as proof points to wrongly claim that fuel was not getting into the country.
As the Coalition showed after the Bondi crisis, it’s not fazed by pressure to offer a bipartisan hand across the aisle at times of national anxiety. In deep opposition and searching for relevance, Angus Taylor’s side knows voters will miss the nuance and hold the government responsible.
New Nationals leader Matt Canavan acknowledged on Thursday that it was the vibe that mattered: “One of the big reasons for the fuel crisis we face right now is because the government is just not trusted on energy,” he said. That trust is more solid in the cities, where Labor dominates.
Governments of both stripes, including when Taylor was energy minister, have failed to build up Australia’s paltry month-long fuel reserve to the three-month international standard. Doing so would cost up to $20 billion. A shock like the current one shows it might be money well spent. Australia has just two oil refineries left.
Coalition and Labor governments haven’t invested enough in national resilience measures – military spending, fuel reserves, manufacturing – to make sure Australia can stand on its own in times of crisis or war.
French President Emmanuel Macron said publicly what Australian ministers are saying among themselves: nobody knows Trump’s endgame in Iran.
The unpredictable conflict will dominate the government’s decision-making for months. Chalmers was already preparing to slow down record-high spending in the May budget. Fresh inflation fears will only strengthen the case for belt-tightening.
The cabinet has been happy to allow public debate on big tax reform options, including winding back negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount.
But the cautious prime minister will be watching to see if the more fractious mood of the electorate, likely to be worsened by an interest rate rise next week, has made a reform sales job more difficult.
Anger about bowsers being out of action is real among drivers and farmers whose livelihoods are at risk. Loud voices on social media – where anti-authoritarian and conspiratorial messages have thrived since the pandemic – have cast the government as traitorous for failing to build up national supply. Albanese dominates the middle-ground of politics, but this week demonstrates how hard it is to speak to all Australians in anxious and polarised times.
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