Queensland businesses are now more pessimistic about the national economy than they were during the 2008 financial crisis following the sharpest confidence collapse in two decades, a major lobby group says, as it pushes for relief in the upcoming state budget.
The Business Chamber Queensland made the findings in its Pulse Report for the 2026 March quarter, which took in some data from April and was the first to record impacts of surging fuel prices following the outbreak of war in Iran.
It showed Queensland businesses were more optimistic about the state economy than the national economy, but believed supply chain insecurity, cost of living pressures, inflation, low productivity and hiked interest rates presented serious challenges.
Andy Ashby, chef-patron at French restaurant C’est Bon in Woolloongabba, told this masthead there was still a strong culture of eating out in Brisbane, but price increases – including new fuel surcharges for many deliveries – had heaped further pressure on already-struggling businesses.
“I think the biggest word I would use is ‘uncertainty’,” he said.
“Confidence is at an all-time low … and we’re all part of this, what I call the hamster wheel.
“I think if we have a … rocky back end of the year, you’ll see probably another 20 if not 30 per cent closing their doors, because it’s not justifiable. It’s just one thing after another.”
Confidence fell for three straight quarters, and the Pulse Report found Queensland businesses were expecting conditions to get worse.
Concerns about political and economic stability were at an all-time high.
Businesses in Brisbane and south-east Queensland were generally more optimistic than other parts of the state, though still had a poor economic outlook.
Adam Gilmour, the founder of Gold Coast-based Gilmour Space Technologies, said recent capital gains tax changes had increased uncertainty further and reduced investment.
“This [is] a potential train wreck if it’s not fixed, because … it’s stopping founders from making the next investment,” he told the audience at an AFR investment forum on the Gold Coast.
“I am even looking at further investments in new companies, and I’m not doing it until I find out what’s going on with capital gains tax.”
Hours later Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced his budget reforms were being pared back, with carve-outs for small businesses and start-ups.
The Business Chamber said it was lobbying for payroll tax relief, among other measures to support businesses in the Queensland state budget, which would be handed down next Tuesday.
Ashby said those changes would be helpful. He also called for an increase in the number of hours those on visas could work each week to reduce the staff shortages facing some industries in Brisbane – a change that would need to be made by the federal government.
“I feel my gut’s telling me small businesses are getting forgotten about,” he said.
“I’m very passionate about what I do, and I just want to find this road map out of this … we do everything by the book, and we just want a road map.”
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