Victoria is forecasting a slashed surplus, rising debt and steeper interest bills, as Labor commits to an election-year overhaul of the state’s sentencing laws.

Tuesday’s state budget, which will also extend stamp duty discounts, will forecast a surplus for the next financial year of $1 billion – $900 million less than predicted in December.

Victorian Treasurer Jaclyn Symes in her office with the 2026-27 budget papers.Joe Armao

Figures provided to The Age by the government forecast Victoria will record its first surplus since the pandemic, at more than $700 million for 2025-26. The figure is predicted to grow to $1 billion in 2026-27.

The state did not provide figures for the remaining budget years but said surpluses would average $1.7 billion over the forward estimates out to 2030.

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