US rebuilding weapons stockpile could delay orders from allies

The U.S. has for years been the top weapons supplier in the world. Over the past five years, arms exports have gone to nearly 100 countries.

“These weapons are sought after around the world because we have the best weapons,” said War Department Under Secretary for Acquisition and Sustainment Michael Duffey.

The Trump administration says some of the U.S. stockpile depletion is because of the weapons given to Ukraine. The Center for Strategic and International Studies assesses those transfers have been a minor factor in the shrinking U.S. inventories except for one important tool – the Patriot Missile Defense System.

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“We’ve maxed out the production lines now, and that process began during the Ukraine War when it was clear that modern conflict was going to require a lot more munitions than we had been planning on,” said Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. Marine colonel and senior advisor with the CSIS Defense and Security Department.

Between 2021 and 2025, Ukraine was the largest recipient of major arms around the world, with at least 36 countries supplying weapons. The U.S. was the top supplier over the five-year time period, accounting for 41% of Ukrainian arms imports.

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Before Russia’s war in Ukraine began in 2022, CSIS estimates the U.S. had around 2,200 Patriot missiles in its inventory. Estimates show around 600 missiles were given to Ukraine, with a few of those possibly coming from U.S. allies. Deliveries of new production outpaced the number given to Ukraine, with an estimated 2,300 missiles in the U.S. Patriot inventory before the Iran conflict began. It’s estimated that around 36% of Patriot Interceptors remain from the pre-Iran war inventory.

“As chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, my job is to sign off on all foreign military weapons and sales to countries like Israel, to countries, like Taiwan and Ukraine, for that matter. And when we can’t deliver on that promise because we can’t make those weapons fast enough, it hurts our alliances, it hurts allies’ ability to protect themselves,” said Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas.

Publicly available government reports show at least four countries, including the U.S., have provided full Patriot missile systems to Ukraine. The U.S. is the only country that manufactures the Patriot battery, and one of two countries along with Japan to publicly show it produces Patriot missiles.

“If we take all of the Patriots for ourselves, and of course, that’s 600 a year, we can refill the inventory much more quickly, but we have frozen out our allies and partners,” Cancian said.

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Patriot producer Raytheon says, “Patriot is the foundation of integrated air and missile defense for 19 nations.” But as the U.S. prioritizes rebuilding its weapons inventory, deliveries for some countries are already delayed.

“Unfortunately, the world we live in is an increasing threat, and that means that we need a bigger military force, and we need a stronger defense industrial base to be able to equip the warfighter and supply all that we need to win the fight,” Duffey said.

Patriot batteries and Tomahawk missiles were first used in Operation Desert Storm. At least two other countries have Tomahawks and while the stockpile remains large compared to other systems, at around two-thirds of its prewar inventory, new orders from Japan and the Netherlands could face delays.

“With Tomahawk, we have the same situation with the Japanese. They bought 400. They’re told they’re being pushed back in the queue. On the other hand, they’re facing China. They’ve reconfigured one of their ships to take the Tomahawks. So, there’s again going to be a diplomatic discussion there,” Cancian said.

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Just the U.S., the UAE and Saudi Arabia have THAAD systems. Their first confirmed use was in 2022 after a UAE system intercepted missiles launched by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. No official delays have been reported for THAAD orders, but the U.S. has 52%-62% of its inventor remaining and outstanding deliveries for Saudi Arabia, expected to be completed by April 2028.

“This military competition we’re in with China and Russia and Iran is real. And we have to win that competition,” McCaul said.

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The ground-launched PrSm, or Precision Strike Missile, developed by Lockheed Martin, was first used in Operation Epic Fury. CSIS says just 10-22% of those weapons remain from pre-Iran conflict levels, following the ceasefire expenditures and revised estimates from the beginning of the conflict in late February.

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“It’s important to keep in mind that the level of intensity in those 14 days of renewed conflict were not as high as they were during the first 39 days of the air war,” Cancian said about the July strikes after the ceasefire ended. “During the 14 days the U.S. was launching maybe 80 to 100 strikes according to the Pentagon per day. During the 39 days of the major air war, we were launching about 350 strikes a day, plus Israel was launching another 200 to 250. So, the intensity wasn’t quite as high, but we were still going through these Munitions.”