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Australians have been told to prepare for the worst from late April as Labor comes under pressure to use energy exports to Asia as leverage to ensure ongoing fuel supply, and a top economist recommends work-from-home directives to reduce demand for oil.
Business chiefs are raising worries about a supply shock if the war in the Middle East drags on, fuelling a call from Coalition industry spokesman Andrew Hastie to insist that Asian nations reliant on Australian coal and gas keep exporting oil to Australia.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expressed hope on Thursday that United States President Donald Trump would bank a win and end the war soon, having degraded Iran’s nuclear and military capacity, underscoring Australia’s anxiety about the economic downside of a war that Labor backed at its outset.
“I’m hopeful that you can see an end point,” Albanese said in Tasmania after chairing a national cabinet meeting to appoint a national fuel coordinator on Thursday.
“The objectives of denying Iran the opportunity to have a development of a nuclear weapon have been secured. So that was objective No. 1.”
Energy Minister Chris Bowen will meet with state counterparts on Friday to discuss local consequences of the war in the Middle East. On Thursday, he cautioned Australians to “prepare for the worst” from about mid-April if worst-case scenarios were realised.
“All the contracted ships are expected to arrive all through March and into April. Beyond that, we do face an international circumstance which is changing daily. We’ve been frank with Australians about that from the beginning. That’s why we continue to do this work, to prepare for the worst in an uncertain environment,” Bowen said in Brisbane.
Bowen is expected to discuss fresh concerns about gas that were exacerbated by an explosion at a key LNG facility in Qatar, marking another troubling escalation in the war and leading to Trump threatening to attack Iranian gas fields.
The ministers are also expected to canvass bailouts for badly affected sectors and emergency powers at state and federal levels to take greater control of fuel supply, although governments are not keen to take this step yet.
Hastie, who favours domestic production and has criticised the hollowing out of Australian industry, said Albanese had a “very strong hand to play” in emphasising to Asian nations their reliance on Australia’s hydrocarbons.
“It’s a source of our prosperity and it’s also an important source of leverage in a crisis,” he told this masthead.
“We’re dependent on countries like Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea for the importation of our liquid fuel. So there’s a relationship of reciprocity there. And I think it’s worth noting that we supply a lot of critical minerals to other countries, and the expectation is that they guarantee supply to us.
“We can work together to solve this crisis, but if everyone starts acting in their own interests and that potentially compromises our fuel security, well, then we’ve got a pretty big hand to play in return as well.”
Hastie said the crisis represented a reckoning for Australia’s economic model, which he said had hollowed out Australia’s sovereign capability. “If you look at the US, they have more than 125 oil refineries when we now have two… The US under President Trump is very unpredictable and the only thing we can control is our security and resilience,” he said.
The federal government is not talking publicly about its modelling on the types of fuel-conserving measures it might consider if the Middle East war drags on and fuel does not flow into Australia at normal levels.
Former Australian Energy Regulator boss Anthea Harris was chosen on Thursday to lead a taskforce that will co-ordinate fuel security and supply chain resilience across the country, as well as provide updates on supply and distribution.
AMP Capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver said Australian governments should open up a public conversation about working from home where possible, travelling to the shops once a week, buying more e10 fuel, using public transport more often, and reconsidering road trips.
“They’re a form of rationing, but not formal rationing,” he said. “The pandemic showed you can get fuel consumption down quite dramatically. It’s not about panicking; it’s about making sure we can keep the economy functioning for as long as possible.”
In the UK, a government planning document reported by The Telegraph recommends capping speed limits at 80km/h. Developed nations have not moved to harsh work-from-home directives, instead relying on opening up fuel reserves much like Australia. Asian nations including Sri Lanka have moved to four-day work weeks.
Albanese said: “I reiterate today my message to Australians is, please do not take more fuel than you need. That is how you can help. It is the Australian way to think of others, to think of their neighbours, their community and also to think of the national interest.”
Earlier, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission revealed it was investigating Ampol, Mobil, BP and Viva Energy over diesel availability to independent wholesalers and distributors servicing regional and rural Australia.
“The ACCC is closely scrutinising all fuel markets during this period, and we have received reports of alleged anti-competitive behaviour. We are therefore investigating these matters urgently,” the watchdog’s chair, Gina Cass-Gottlieb, said.
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Paul Sakkal is chief political correspondent. He previously covered Victorian politics and has won Walkley and Quill awards. Reach him securely on Signal @paulsakkal.14Connect via X or email.
Nick Newling is a federal politics reporter for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X or email.From our partners
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