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More than 30,000 people deserted the eastern part of Sydney for other regions last year while western Sydney’s population remained relatively stable, as sharp differences in population growth become entrenched across the city.
Some neighbourhoods in Sydney’s north-west and south-west registered double-digit population growth rates in 2024-25, but the number of residents shrank in more than 50 other suburbs, many of them in the city’s most affluent areas.
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The north-western neighbourhood of Box Hill-Nelson added 3911 people in the year, one of the largest increases for any suburb in Australia. The nearby suburb of Marsden Park-Shanes Park was not far behind, with a population growth of 3172.
But in dozens of neighbourhoods across Sydney’s north shore and eastern suburbs numbers declined or were stagnant, including Coogee-Clovelly (-131), Turramurra (-114) and Hunters Hill-Woolwich (-111). The population of Hunters Hill-Woolwich is now 7 per cent smaller than a decade ago.
KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said the combination of an ageing population and high house prices was contributing to population declines in affluent pockets of the city.
“Housing affordability is squeezing young families out of these areas,” he said.
Another contributor to this trend is a dearth of babies; there were 42 suburbs in Greater Sydney where deaths outnumbered births in 2024-25 (some of these had a high share of residents in an aged care facility).
Nick Parr, honorary professor of demography at Macquarie University, said the number of suburbs where deaths outnumber births is set to rise.
“The ageing of the population age structure is an important determinant of that pattern, so we can expect the number of suburbs in which deaths outnumber births to increase,” he said.
Exodus from the east
A net total of 33,282 people left Greater Sydney for other parts of the country last financial year, far more than departed any other capital, Bureau of Statistics regional population figures show.
But analysis by KPMG revealed most of the exodus was from the eastern part of Sydney, including the northern beaches, north shore, eastern suburbs and inner west; a net total of over 30,000 left eastern Sydney for other parts of Australia, while in western Sydney the decline was only about 2800.
Rawnsley said the high cost of housing across the east and north was a key driver.
“Housing affordability in the eastern suburbs is pushing people out, whereas the west is proving a stable option for many young families,” he said.
Rawnsley said new infrastructure – including the North-West Metro, the M12 motorway and access soon-to-be offered by Western Sydney Airport – have helped reshape perceptions of western Sydney.
“Job opportunities are also encouraging more people to view the region in a different light,” he said.
The regions of Blacktown and south-western Sydney had a net inflow of people from other parts of Australia last financial year.
Parr said most of those leaving Sydney for other parts of the country were families with children moving to regional NSW.
“There were also significant net losses from Sydney to Brisbane and the rest of Queensland,” he said.
Citywide trends
Despite the outflow of people to other regions, the arrival of overseas migrants meant Sydney’s population rose by 75,000, or 1.4 per cent in 2024-25.
That population growth rate was the slowest since the disruptions of the COVID pandemic, and was well down on the 2 per cent increase the previous year.
Sydney’s most densely populated area was Sydney South-Haymarket, at the southern end of the CBD, with 22,902 people per square kilometre. Next were Chippendale (20,476), Ultimo (18,851) and Zetland (18,629).
The Bilpin-Colo-St Albans area on the city’s north-western outskirts had the lowest density of just 1.3 people per square kilometre.
Sydney v Melbourne
Greater Sydney was home to 5.65 million in June 2025, and it remains Australia’s most populated city. But Melbourne, which reached 5.35 million, is rapidly closing the gap; a decade ago, Sydney had 350,000 more people than Victoria’s capital, but that has shrunk to about 200,000.
“This narrowing is in a large part because Melbourne is winning the housing supply race against Sydney, making it a more affordable city that can retain more workers,” Rawnsley said.
“Melbourne and Sydney are now roughly the same size in terms of population, but over the past year, Melbourne has approved about 24 per cent more homes than Sydney.”
Perth’s population grew by 2.4 per cent in 2024-25, making it Australia’s fastest-growing capital, followed by Brisbane (2.1 per cent). Hobart had the slowest growth of 0.2 per cent.
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Matt Wade is a senior economics writer at The Sydney Morning Herald.Connect via X or email.From our partners
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