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As U.S.-Iran diplomacy remains primarily focused on Tehran’s nuclear program, Israeli officials and analysts warn that ballistic missiles remain a central red line for Jerusalem and could shape any decision on unilateral action.
Before departing for his trip to Washington, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he plans to press Israel’s priorities in the talks. “I will present to the president our views regarding the principles of the negotiations — the important principles — and, in my view, they are important not only for Israel, but for anyone in the world who wants peace and security in the Middle East.”
Those priorities, Israeli officials say, extend beyond the nuclear file and include Iran’s missile capabilities. Israeli defense officials have recently warned U.S. counterparts that Iran’s ballistic missile program constitutes an existential threat to Israel and that Jerusalem is prepared to act alone if necessary, according to reporting by The Jerusalem Post.
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The outlet reported that Israeli security officials conveyed in recent weeks their intent to dismantle Iran’s missile capabilities and production infrastructure through a series of high-level exchanges with Washington. Military planners outlined potential operational concepts aimed at degrading the program, including strikes on key manufacturing and development sites.
A spokesperson for Israel’s defense minister declined to comment on the issue.
Sima Shine, a former senior Israeli intelligence official and current senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, told Fox News Digital that limiting talks to the nuclear issue risks missing what Israel considers the broader threat.
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“If negotiations deal only with the nuclear file and ignore the missiles, Israel will remain exposed,” Shine said. “Iran treats its ballistic missile program as its main deterrence and will not give it up,” stressing that Tehran views them as a defensive and deterrent capability dictated by the supreme leader, as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country would not negotiate on its ballistic missile program, rejecting a core U.S. demand and further dimming prospects for a breakthrough deal. Shine described that stance as a fundamental red line for Israel.
She also warned that Tehran may be stalling diplomatically while assessing whether Washington will limit the talks to nuclear constraints alone.
“They have room to show flexibility on enrichment,” she said, noting that activity slowed after strikes on facilities, “but missiles are different. That they would not discuss.”
Israeli concerns extend beyond the negotiating table. A former intelligence official familiar with strategic planning said Israel retains the capability to strike independently if necessary.
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“Israel can act by itself if there is no choice,” the former official said, adding that missile expansion and regional threats would be key triggers.
Shine says that the optics of Israeli pressure on Washington could complicate matters.
“If missiles become the central public demand, it may look as if Israel is pushing the U.S. toward military action,” she said. “If that fails, Israel could be blamed.”
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She added that Iran’s missile arsenal is not aimed solely at Israel but forms part of a broader deterrence strategy against the United States and regional adversaries.
For Israel, the implication is clear. A nuclear agreement that leaves Iran’s missile infrastructure untouched could be seen in Jerusalem as stabilizing the regime while leaving the most immediate threat in place. That calculation, Israeli analysts say, defines the red line.
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