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Sunshine, Dandenong, Broadmeadows and Footscray would see the most significant change in housing density as Melbourne faces “crunch time” finding places to live for its burgeoning population.
Projections of what Melbourne could look like in 2101 if urban sprawl is contained show the number of dwellings increasing by almost 2 million, and the city’s west, as far out as Melton, copping the brunt of that change.
The suburban centre with the largest increase in dwelling numbers would be Box Hill, rising from 6826 today to 24,427. It is followed by Footscray with 20,117 and Sunshine with 11,689 dwellings.
However, if you look at residences per hectare – the true identifier of housing density – Sunshine is pushed to No.1.
The impact of not adding this density and allowing sprawl to continue as it has been, would see Melbourne swallow up small rural communities like Toolern Vale, in the outer north-west, and Pearcedale near Tooradin in the south-east.
The population and housing projections from Johnny Barnard, founder of the National Forecasting Program at demographic consultancy Informed Decisions (.id), and commissioned by The Age, show where Melbourne will have to build up, or grow out, to fit more than 10 million people.
The data looks at two growth scenarios: a “business as usual” approach where the city continues to sprawl outwards, or a “containment” model where growth occurs within the city’s current official boundary.
Developer pressure is mounting for the opening up of Melbourne’s metropolitan frontier, the urban growth boundary, as the size and shape of the city looms as an election issue in November.
“We’re at crunch time,” says Barnard, a demographer who has tracked the development of Australian cities for 30 years.
“There will be pressure from the property industry to extend the boundary within the next 10 years and probably pressure on whoever forms government after the November election.”
In 2002, the state government established the urban growth boundary, as a hard limit on housing expansion which extends around Pakenham, Cranbourne, Lilydale, Epping, Wallan, Melton and Werribee.
Planning Minister Sonya Kilkenny has promised to resist developer pressure and maintain the urban edge, committing instead to putting 70 per cent of growth in established suburbs, including a network of activity centres, and just 30 per cent in greenfield areas. The Coalition supports more fringe housing but has not declared a position on the boundary.
Either way, Melbourne’s rate of growth – which is higher than that of most developed countries – poses challenges for all levels of government and the city’s residents.
If we settle for business as usual, our city’s footprint will swell by almost one third, from 2464 to 3436 square kilometres, gobbling up ever more farmland and green space. If we consolidate, we’ll need to squeeze an extra half a million homes into existing neighbourhoods.
Shaping the city is a key topic of The Age and the University of Melbourne’s forum Melbourne Assembly, a three-day event in October bringing together some of the world’s brightest minds in city planning, innovation, education, arts and sport to discuss ideas for the city’s future.
On Wednesday, we will explore what a megacity Melbourne – similar to New York City or Istanbul – would look like, and the potential for decentralisation alternatives.
A sprawling Melbourne
Melton mayor Lara Carli knows only too well what outward growth looks like.
Some 200 new residents arrive every week in this once-tiny country town on the city’s north-western edge, now part of Australia’s fastest growing region, Melbourne’s west.
Only last week, the state government opened up yet another suburb, Melton East, earmarked for 12,000 homes and seven schools.
But the arrival of new residents has not been matched by the trains, roads and other infrastructure and services that politicians seem to picture when they crow about Melbourne’s liveability.
A high priority is the long-awaited electrification of the Melton line and additional train stations at Thornhill Park and Mount Atkinson (Truganina), a yet-to-be delivered government promise from 2018.
The further the city spreads, the wider the gap between where people live and public transport, jobs, major sporting and cultural activities.
More than 80 per cent of residents leave Melton every day to go to work. Most drive because public transport is not close or frequent enough. Locals jokingly refer to the freeways in the area as car parks.
“If growth continues in outer metropolitan areas like Melton, infrastructure and services must be delivered alongside that growth, not years later, so communities remain connected, liveable and prosperous for generations to come,” Carli says.
Development in cow paddocks is always easier than building in established neighbourhoods – the land is cheaper, construction formulaic and less complex, and cows can’t object.
Melbourne has gobbled up swaths of native grasslands and prime farmland and, especially to the south-east, once bountiful market gardens.
Under the “business as usual” growth scenario, the current population in the Kurunjang and Toolern Vale area, within wider Melton, would explode eleven-fold to 130,000 – 88.4 per cent more than would be the case if the boundary remained firm.
In the north, the population of already fast-growing Greenvale would triple to 86,225 – 35 per cent greater than if the city were contained.
In the south-east, the city would spread to Garfield, past Pakenham. At Pearcedale near Tooradin, the current population of just over 8000 would swell to 61,000 – 83 per cent more than if the city were contained.
However by contrast, in leafy Kew East the current population of 6655 would grow to just 7699. The suburb would have almost 50 per cent fewer residents than if the boundary remained firm and growth contained.
Building up, not out
Mohamed Semra regularly and warmly welcomes newcomers to his beloved municipality of Maribyrnong.
It’s part of his job as mayor and, as a refugee from war-torn Sudan, he understands the attraction of a city like Melbourne, particularly its culturally diverse western neighbourhoods.
But Maribyrnong’s open-door policy comes with caveats.
Footscray, the municipality’s heart, is earmarked for a hefty share of Melbourne’s booming population.
If that growth is contained, transport hubs such as Footscray and Sunshine, in neighbouring Brimbank, face daunting transformation.
Semra says such growth requires careful planning and investment, not more fast-tracking of the windswept, 30-storey apartment towers that left Footscray with the Joseph Road precinct, a case study in poor liveability.
He says council is working hard to ensure that prime development sites, such as the long-derelict Forges site in Albert Street, are transformed with care.
“The west shouldn’t have to choose between growth and liveability, we need both,” says Semra.
He says the current funding does not allow councils to deliver the infrastructure that growing communities need, and calls for a stronger partnership with all levels of government.
“Healthy communities need access to quality public transport, schools, health services, parks, jobs and community infrastructure that supports everyday life.”
Pierre Vario has lived in West Footscray for 20 years and supports plans to increase housing density in the area as long as there are enough services to cater for a growing population.
“I think there’s a bit of a disconnect between the state government selecting areas for increased density and the local council,” the father-of-two says.
“I would like to see state government come in and not only up-zone places so that we can have taller buildings, but to come in and say, ‘Here is a chunk of land for a new park’, or, ‘Here is some money for upgraded public transport links and bike lanes and improved streets’, so that those places are nice places for the new people to live.”
Under the containment scenario, Footscray’s housing density would be higher than that of any existing metropolitan centre. Ditto Brunswick, Coburg, Preston, St Kilda Road.
Central Sunshine’s population would grow four-fold, taking 61 per cent more new residents than under the “business as usual” scenario.
To accommodate the kind of activity centre growth envisaged around train stations, the average height of buildings would be 19 storeys in Box Hill, 10 in Footscray and Sunshine and nine storeys in Brunswick and Coburg.
On the other side of town, the containment scenario would lead to Brighton’s population doubling, with 27 per cent more residents than under the “business as usual” model.
And in projections that would dismay Melburnians in the inner east, the loss of some heritage streetscapes is all but inevitable under the containment scenario.
“There’s always that inherent conflict that you’re going to get with heritage, especially in those areas around the old train stations,” Barnard says.
“When you get into the middle suburbs, you’re going to be knocking down 1930s streetscapes to get the job done, really.”
The most likely scenario
The containment scenario is facing serious obstacles. It always has.
Despite the government’s fast-tracking of planning approvals, which sideline councils and resident objectors, affordable apartments are not being built where the government wants them to be.
While high-rise apartments are often the focus in discussions about Melbourne’s growth, lower-rise infill housing – defined as development with fewer than 10 dwellings – is also important.
It is especially the case under the containment scenario, where it provides about a third of new housing to 2101. Much of it is dual-occupancy townhouses replacing detached housing.
Kilkenny stresses the government’s new townhouse code has made approvals easier, pointing to a 50 per cent increase in applications over the past year.
“So this is where we’re seeing growth, and I am glad we’re seeing it, too,” she says. “They (townhouses) are affordable for a lot of young people.”
But while developer interest in townhouses is good news for Labor, Urban Development Institute of Australia chief executive Linda Allison says most are being built in more affordable growth areas, not in established suburbs.
This leaves a big question mark over the vision of higher-density activity centres, so important to the idea of containment and to megaprojects such as the Suburban Rail Loop.
So, which scenario is most likely to play out in the long run?
Barnard says 200 years of outward momentum is going to be hard to halt.
“Putting a hard urban boundary around Melbourne would be a significant departure indeed from the way we’ve operated for a long time.”
– With Eleanor Campbell
Melbourne Assembly will be held from October 19 to October 21. More information is available on the Melbourne Assembly website, including special offers for Age subscribers
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