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Equal numbers of Canadians both fear and doubt a U.S. military invasion as U.S. President Donald Trump ramps up his expansionist rhetoric, a new poll suggests.
The Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News also found half of Canadians would trust Prime Minister Mark Carney to handle a potential military threat from the U.S. — nearly triple the number who said the same of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Asked by Ipsos to what extent they agreed or disagreed with various statements on a possible U.S. military invasion, 56 per cent of Canadians said they either strongly agree (16 per cent) or somewhat agree (40 per cent) that the U.S. would never invade.
However, the same number said they were fearful an invasion could happen, with 17 per cent strongly agreeing and 39 per cent somewhat agreeing with the statement: “I am fearful Trump will use military force against Canada.”
“This is a question we would not have asked even a year ago,” said Gregory Jack, senior vice-president of Ipsos Public Affairs.
“It’s about 50-50, and that’s a number that I think, had we asked this question a year ago, would have been closer to 80-20 or even 90-10 in terms of those saying it was not a realistic possibility.”
Jack noted more women than men were fearful of a military conflict between the longtime allies, while fears of a U.S. invasion were more prominent among younger Canadians aged 18-34.
While Trump has previously said he would use “economic force” to take over Canada, fears of a military invasion have escalated since the U.S. president began talking about acquiring Greenland this year — and floated the possibility of using force.
Trump last week finally declared he wouldn’t pursue a military invasion of Greenland and later announced a deal framework with NATO on Arctic security, climbing down from his annexation threats.
Before that, Trump raised alarm bells in Canada by posting an AI-generated image of himself in the Oval Office with a map showing the American flag covering Canada, the U.S. and Greenland, as well as Venezuela and Cuba.
Last week, The Economist and the Globe and Mail reported that Canada’s military planners have gamed out what an American military invasion could look like — and how long the Canadian side could hold out.
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Ipsos conducted its new poll between Jan. 22 and 24 following Trump’s announcement of the potential Greenland deal, as well as after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech to the World Economic Forum that declared an end to the rules-based international order.
The poll was also taken after Trump repeated his claims that the NATO military alliance wouldn’t come to the aid of the U.S. in the event of an attack, and even disparaged the service of NATO allies in Afghanistan.
Over three-quarters (77 per cent) of Canadians polled said they believe NATO allies would come to Canada’s defence in the event of a U.S. military invasion.
Just 37 per cent said the Canadian military would be able to successfully defend the country on its own.
Although half of Canadians told Ipsos they would be willing to join a formal preparation training program in case of a foreign military invasion, the number who said they would be willing to personally enlist and fight against such an invasion fell to 43 per cent.
Even fewer — 38 per cent — said there should be mandatory military service for young people in Canada in the face of growing international threats.
“This is very much a hypothetical and we could see those numbers shift if there was any actual threat that happened to Canada,” Jack said.
If Canada were unable to realistically defend itself from an American military invasion, 53 per cent said the priority should be minimizing casualties — even if that means surrendering to the U.S.
Asked which federal leader they would trust most to face a U.S. military threat, 50 per cent chose Carney while just 16 per cent chose Poilievre. A quarter of those surveyed said they wouldn’t trust either leader.
Jack said this was reflective of both Carney’s position as prime minister and possibly his well-received speech in Davos.
“Mr. Poilievre tends to be seen as better able to manage things like affordability and crime, but on this particular issue, Mr. Carney is the leader that Canadians feel would be best able to respond,” he said.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between Jan. 22 and 23, 2026, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
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