2026 FIFA World Cup Title Pie: Is Messi’s Argentina Or Mbappé’s France The Favorite?

Group play at the 2026 FIFA World Cup is nearing its end, and there weren’t many surprises as we head toward the knockout stage. But does that mean the favorites entering the tournament should remain the favorites ahead of the knockout stage?

That’s what “First Things First’s” Nick Wright believes. As we’re nearly complete with Match Day 3 at the World Cup, Wright dished out percentages on the teams most likely to win the tournament.

Here’s who he has as the favorites, and who he might view as sneaky underdogs. 

Less Than 1%, But Deserve A Slice

Sweden
Ivory Coast
Senegal
Ghana
Croatia
Egypt 
Canada

Wright’s thoughts: “I don’t like how they’ve looked at all. And then, all of a sudden, because of Senegal winning by margin and the other third-place game situations. It’s not that they have to tie New Zealand tonight, they’ve got to win against New Zealand tonight or they’re going home, I believe.”

Wright’s thoughts: “They won their group. They stole Canada’s path. They now get to stay in Vancouver through the round of 16. It was the easiest group, but they’ve looked good.”

Wright’s thoughts: “A team that’s looked better than 2%, but I hate their draw for them. I know Ian Darke said [Japan likes having a tough path], but I disagree. They play Brazil now in the round of 32. So, their World Cup’s about to end. But they’ve played well.”

Wright’s thoughts: “If we did this pie on Sunday morning, it could be very different. Can they beat Portugal? What can they do as far as winning the group on Saturday? If they don’t, then, all of a sudden, they’re probably playing Spain in the first round of this tournament and they’re probably done.”

Wright’s thoughts: “Netherlands the moment the draw came out had to feel like, ‘Well, this isn’t right. What’s our goal? Win our group. Oh, sweet. What happens if we win our group? Our first game is either against Morocco or Brazil. They won their group and their first game is against Morocco. They absolutely can win that game. It’s just that could be a quarterfinal game and instead, it’s a round of 32 game.”

Wright’s thoughts: “Perfect’s perfect: Six goals scored, zero goals allowed [in group play]. They get to stay in Mexico until potentially the quarterfinals, and it sets up a potentially unbelievable round of 16 game.”

Wright’s thoughts: “Norway goes down to 4%. Norway, I’m not mad. I’m disappointed. I’m disappointed that you were undefeated playing the favorite [in France] and decided you were fine with playing for second place. It’s just disappointing. I like Erling Haaland.”

Wright’s thoughts: “Listen, they’ve been excellent. Their percentage, much like the Netherlands, is hampered by the fact that their round of 32 game is brutal, playing the Netherlands. If they get through that game, however, then they get the winner of Canada-South Africa and then, all of a sudden, France [in the quarterfinals]. That was the semifinals in the last World Cup. That could be the quarterfinals here.”

Wright’s thoughts: “It’s up because the last time I did this, they had only played one game. Christian Pulisic is back and healthy. They have no yellow card suspensions to worry about. And, they are the only team in the tournament that’s path to the quarters might not involve ever playing a top-20 team [if Belgium loses in the round of 32].”

Wright’s thoughts: “If they take care of business against Colombia and win that game and the group, you can settle yourselves. If they don’t, then I think it was not so much that Game 1 was the aberration and Game 2 was them returning to form. Rather, Game 1 might be who they are in this tournament and Game 2 was the aberration. But if they do win, it’s setting up for an amazing matchup against Argentina in the quarters, potentially.

“If Portugal looks good Saturday night in Miami against Colombia, then I will move them into the top four. I just need to see that the first game was an aberration.” 

Wright’s thoughts: “They lost [to Ecuador], but they also had everything clinched. So, I’m not going to kill them for it. The percentage is down because they’re in the same quadrant as France. Assuming France and Germany win their first games, the round of 16 — which used to be the first knockout round — it’s going to be France vs. Germany.

Wright’s thoughts: “I am not as bullish on England as everyone else seems to be. Now, maybe the draw against Ghana was due to them winning their first game and they weren’t worried about it. But here’s the other reason I’m a little concerned about England: They’re on a collision course for the rowdiest World Cup environment for a road team in 20-plus years. Round of 16, England in Mexico City against Mexico for the biggest game in Mexican soccer history. It’ll be the biggest home-field advantage since Korea played Germany in the semifinals in Seoul in 2002.”

Wright’s thoughts: “They’re probably fine, but [they almost had to play Argentina due to underperforming group play].”

Wright’s thoughts: “All they’ve done is won by the biggest margin. They had one of the toughest groups. They won multiple games by three-plus goals. But people don’t like it because they’re not as fancy as when they had Ronaldinho doing the Nike commercials.

“They’ve been unfairly maligned for reasons no one has explained. They won the only group with two top-10 teams in the world. They have, arguably, the single best manager in the tournament. They also have a great path. They are also likely going to be playing England or Mexico after their emotional game in the quarterfinals. If they get through that, you’re playing Argentina or Portugal after their wildly emotional game in the semifinals. They’ve had the best defense in the tournament so far and one of the guys who could win the Golden Boot.”

Wright’s thoughts: “I don’t know how much to give France credit for [its win over Norway], given what Norway ended up doing. But, obviously, they’ve looked great. 

“They have the most talent of any team in the tournament.” 

Wright’s thoughts: “Argentina is the favorite right now. They haven’t allowed a goal. Lionel Messi seems like a man on a mission.

“The vibes meter can’t be any higher.