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For years, America didn’t have enough homes to meet rising demand. Soon, it may not have enough homebuyers.
A new report from the Mortgage Bankers Association argues the housing market is nearing a major demographic shift. After more than a decade of demand outpacing supply, slower population growth and an aging population are expected to reduce the need for new housing, potentially reshaping forecasts for homebuilding, home prices and affordability.
That would mark a sharp reversal from the past decade.
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Millennials, the nation’s largest generation, entered their prime homebuying years after the financial crisis, driving a surge in household formation that builders struggled to keep up with.
As demand outpaced supply, home prices climbed. The pandemic only intensified the imbalance as record-low mortgage rates unleashed another wave of buyers.
According to the report, slower population growth, lower birth rates, an aging population and reduced immigration are expected to result in fewer people looking to buy or rent homes over the next decade, even as builders continue adding new housing.
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If that happens, some markets could end up with more homes than buyers, giving more choices to those looking to buy and making it harder for sellers to ask higher prices after years of seller favorability, especially in the post-COVID era.
That doesn’t mean every market is headed for a downturn.
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The report notes that housing remains highly local. States including Texas, Florida and Arizona, where construction has accelerated, could see softer prices if supply continues to grow.
In contrast, parts of the Northeast and Midwest, where new construction remains constrained, may continue to experience stronger price appreciation.
Researchers also reject the idea of a predicted “silver tsunami” of Baby Boomer homes flooding the market.
Instead, they expect those properties to come onto the market gradually over many years, adding to housing supply without triggering a sudden glut.
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Even so, the shift could have real consequences for homeowners. If builders continue adding homes faster than demand grows, home-price gains could slow, homeowners could build equity more slowly, and buyers could have more choices, according to the report.
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