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Like many of his predecessors, Anthony Albanese has grown to enjoy the international diplomatic round that goes with the prime minister’s job. These days it’s quite a thing, with an extensive “summit season” that dominates the latter months of the year.
Summit season includes the international climate conference (COP), ASEAN, APEC and the G20 – a string of meetings where Albanese can rub shoulders with dozens of world leaders.
Ahead of the summits, he will be at the United Nations during leaders’ week in September. That’s an excellent opportunity for a PM with lobbying on his mind. Albanese, who’ll address the General Assembly for the second year running, will launch Australia’s bid for one of the non-permanent places on the UN Security Council in 2029-30.
If Australia can secure a seat, it would be icing on the international cake for the Albanese government. The council period would fall in a Labor third term that, given its huge majority and the chaos on the conservative side, appears a fair bet as things now stand.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong says: “At a time when the world is more contested and more uncertain, a seat on the Security Council would give Australia a stronger voice in the decisions that affect us and our region.
“As an active middle power, we have a practical contribution to make to international peace and security, standing up for the rules and working with others to deliver outcomes.”
Labor places much more faith in the UN than the conservatives do, so obtaining that seat would be a high priority for Wong and Albanese.
Australia has had five stints on the Security Council: 1946-47, 1956-57, 1973-74, 1985-86 and 2013-14. Norman Makin, Australia’s ambassador to the United States and a former Labor minister, was president at the council’s first session in 1946.
The last time Australia had a seat turned out to be particularly significant, after the downing of the Malaysia Airlines MH17 flight over Ukraine by pro-Russian forces killed 38 Australian citizens and residents. Then foreign minister Julie Bishop carried Australia’s reaction in the council.
Bids for the non-permanent seats can have long lead times, and it was actually Bishop who, in September 2015 under the Turnbull government, announced the current one. The Liberals had not always been so keen on pursuing a spot. In 2012, while in opposition, Tony Abbott lambasted the Labor government for the cost. But Opposition Leader Angus Taylor is giving in-principle support to the current bid.
There’s no doubt such campaigns can be expensive, especially if contested. They can also distort foreign aid, with some money spent effectively to buy votes.
So far, however, there is not a contest. Two spots are available for the Western European and Others group, of which Australia is part, and the only other nomination is Finland, which was beaten by Australia and Luxembourg for the 2013-14 places. The government believes a late new runner is unlikely, but it is not complacent.
The election is in June 2028, just after the due date of the federal poll. Even if the spot is uncontested, to be elected a country requires a two-thirds majority of those voting at the General Assembly (about 129 votes if all 193 member states are present and voting.)
Leaders’ week should be an easy run for Albanese. By contrast, the diplomacy around the UN climate summit is more complicated, requiring a good deal of dexterity.
The government wanted to host the COP, in partnership with Pacific countries, but found itself in an arm-wrestle with a very determined Turkey. That led to a less-than-satisfactory co-hosting compromise. But Energy Minister Chris Bowen is the “president of the negotiations”.
This year’s COP has become more challenging for Australia than might have been expected when Labor proposed, ahead of the 2022 election, to bid for a COP.
Domestically, as the cost-of-living crisis has gripped the nation, the issue of climate change has slipped down the list of people’s concerns.
Internationally, this will be one of the less notable COPs, more focused on nitty-gritty issues than on making major strides. Also, it comes when it’s clear that the world is not going to meet earlier ambitious goals.
Richie Merzian, chief executive of the Clean Energy Investor Group, an industry body, foresees the November COP as “workmanlike” but “symbolically” important. It comes at a time when the multilateral system is being undermined. And there is pushback on environmental standards, with companies stepping back from earlier commitments. So it will be a “rallying cry of support around processes and the ultimate objective”, Merzian says.
Among the specific issues will be the perennial one of money – in this case, finance for small islands’ battle with climate change.
Australia’s progress in meeting its own targets is mixed. There are two main ones: a reduction of 43 per cent below 2005 emissions levels by 2030, and having 82 per cent of its electricity coming from renewables in 2030.
Grattan Institute senior fellow Tony Wood says Australia will come close to meeting the first. But “despite Chris Bowen’s heavy lifting”, it is unlikely to meet the second.
With the economics of large wind farms becoming difficult, and other investment problems, the government is stepping on the accelerator wherever possible to promote the renewables rollout. Albanese has sought to insist, in the government’s specifications for data centres, that all proposals must bring an accompanying new renewable energy source to provide the power. But pushback from Queensland and the Northern Territory at Wednesday’s national cabinet led Albanese to provide some flexibility. “In Queensland, you have public ownership of power generation, transmission and distribution. So, if there is surplus, then that, of course, could be available,” he told a news conference.
The COP is preceded by a “pre-COP” in Fiji in early October that includes a special leaders’ event in Tuvalu, a tiny nation seriously threatened by rising sea levels that has been dubbed “a country without a future”. But hopes of attracting a good turnout of leaders were overoptimistic.
Even under this government, Australia remains on the defensive in the Pacific on climate issues, with countries always wanting their big neighbour to do more.
Albanese signalled that he will be at pre-COP when he told federal parliament recently that the Thai prime minister would be there. Given both Australia’s hosting responsibilities and the government’s concerted effort, for strategic reasons, to promote special relationships with Pacific countries, it would be a diplomatic misstep to stay away.
Michelle Grattan is a professorial fellow at the University of Canberra.
Michelle Grattan is professorial fellow at the University of Canberra. This article was first published on The ConversationConnect via X.From our partners
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