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While the federal government has yet to sort out what it’s doing with its order for a full fleet of fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets, it’s already looking to the next big thing.
Ottawa is widely expected to announce Tuesday it will join a sixth-generation fighter jet program run by the U.K., Japan and Italy — not as a participant but as an observer with access to internal information.
Defence Minister David McGuinty, currently in the U.K. for a major international air show, has said the government is interested in learning more about the Global Combat Air Program.
The three countries launched the Global Combat Air Program to replace Japan’s F-2 jets and the Eurofighter Typhoons used by the U.K. and Italy.
It’s still very early days and it’s not clear yet whether Canada has a viable path to participating in the fighter jet program in a way that gets domestic industry involved.
“It’s still very conceptual,” said Philippe Lagassé, a professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs.
“Research has begun on it. The viability is not yet clear. The importance of it is not yet clear. You’ll have a lot of critics who will argue we should be abandoning traditional fighters altogether. There’s a lot of things to iron out and some uncertainty … but this is normal for a project like this.”
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David Perry, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, said there are a lot of unanswered questions about how Canada could get involved and whether there’s an entry fee.
But gaining observer status could help crystallize the federal government’s thinking on future involvement in the program, he said.
“I think it makes sense for us, at a minimum, to go kick the tires and then see whether or not if it looks like it’s a good initiative to be a part of more seriously,” he said.
Boeing in the U.S. is manufacturing the F-47, a next-generation twin-engined fighter to replace the U.S. air force’s F-22 Raptor. Those have an estimated cost of about US$300 million per aircraft — much more expensive than the F-35s.
Daniel Norton, senior management systems analyst at the RAND Corporation think tank, said the U.S. might not want to export the technology and it could be “cost-prohibitive for smaller air forces like the RCAF.”
The Global Combat Air Program, he said, “may be less expensive and offer a greater chance for Canadian firms to become involved in development and production.”
“At the very least, the threat of participation could provide some leverage in negotiations with other contractors,” he added.
Canada’s plan to purchase a fleet of fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets has been under a federal review for more than a year.
Prime Minister Mark Carney put the full order of 88 jets under review in March 2025 in response to the ongoing trade war started by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Richard Shimooka, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said the Global Combat Air Program has suffered internal tensions and it’s not clear where the program will be a few years down the road.
The U.K. had dragged its heels for nearly a year on committing to financing, while Japan has pushed for a faster pace.
Shimooka pointed out there’s another option for Canada: joining the U.S. navy’s sixth-generation project, the F/A-XX.
Canada could still seek to join that once the political dynamics change between Ottawa and Washington, he said.
“Canadian industries are very effectively aligned with U.S. industry,” he said.
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