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Pauline Hanson’s top adviser has lashed the federal Coalition’s decision to preference minor parties ahead of One Nation in the Farrer byelection, pleading with the opposition to work with Hanson to fight Labor, not each other.
But Nationals leader Matt Canavan dismissed the request, and highlighted divisions within One Nation over Hanson’s disparaging remarks about Muslim-Australians, as well as the dispute over the employment and subsequent sacking of convicted rapist Sean Black, while noting the party had dipped in the latest polls.
James Ashby, Hanson’s chief of staff, said that polls were like the stock market, in that “they’ll have good and bad days”, and claimed One Nation had driven a conservative agenda that had forced the Liberal Party to correct its drift towards the centre.
“We see Labor as the enemy, not the Coalition,” he told this masthead. “And while One Nation have set our sights on forming government at the next election, the polls are increasingly showing that if the Coalition drop their hatred for One Nation and reciprocate preferences, we can take this government out,” he said.
“But as we’ve seen in Farrer, both the Nationals and Liberals have preferenced One Nation low. One Nation, on the other hand, recognise the danger of the teal, Climate 200 and GetUp! candidate and have preferenced Nationals two, Liberals three. The Coalition remain Labor’s best chance of a third term in government with their bloody mindedness.”
Canavan said it was too early to tell whether One Nation’s rise in the polls had peaked and added “it doesn’t change what I’m focused on, which is winning Farrer and taking down a bad government”.
“The last couple of weeks have shown that they [One Nation] have not got their organisation firing on all cylinders. They hired a convicted rapist and then had to sack him, and then they just blamed everyone else and said it’s their fault,” he said.
“One thing that is evident is that One Nation is increasingly fighting among each other. If they can’t work together as a party of five, how will they work as a party of 50 [MPs].”
One Nation’s popularity has dipped, according to Resolve Political Monitor, less than three weeks out from the byelection in former Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s seat of Farrer. The battle for the seat is shaping as a four-way contest between One Nation’s David Farley, independent Michelle Milthorpe, Liberal Raissa Butkowski – who has the advantage of being No.1 on the ballot – and the Nationals’ Brad Robertson.
Milthorpe and Farley are the frontrunners, according to a handful of polls conducted in the seat.
The Nationals will direct preferences in the seat to the Liberals, then to Family First, then the Gerrard Rennick People First party and then to One Nation ahead of the Climate 200-backed independent Milthorpe.
The Liberals have the Nationals second, then independent Roger Woodward – who stood for the Sydney seat of Berowra at the last election, but has promised to move to the electorate – and then One Nation, ahead of minor parties including Family First and Rennick’s party, while Milthorpe is preferenced fourth last on the 12 candidate ballot.
Canavan said One Nation “can have a whinge about it” but One Nation was likely to receive a boost from Liberal and Nationals voters if the major party candidates are eliminated first on polling day.
At a forum for Farrer candidates organised by the Griffith Business Chamber and held on Monday evening, One Nation’s Farley – who has previously spoken about donations rolling in to support his campaign – said details about money coming from mining magnate Gina Rinehart was “above his pay grade”, according to a report in Region Media.
Rinehart is a significant supporter of and donor to One Nation.
April’s Resolve Political Monitor, published by this masthead on Monday, showed that One Nation’s vote had fallen by one percentage point to 22 per cent, support for the Coalition rose a point to 23 per cent while support for Labor rose three points to 32 per cent.
Australian National University professor Marija Taflaga said the Liberals’ position at No.1 on the ballot would give the party a small advantage but “it would be unlikely to affect the result”.
“The reality is the Liberals or Nationals have to come first or second or their preferences will end up being distributed to One Nation,” she said.
“It depends on how well One Nation performs and if it comes first or second in the first wave of counting. If the Liberals come second and One Nation first [for example], before preferences are allocated, those preferences won’t go to One Nation.”
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James Massola is chief political commentator. He was previously national affairs editor and South-East Asia correspondent. He has won Quill and Kennedy awards and been a Walkley finalist. Connect securely on Signal @jamesmassola.01Connect via X or email.From our partners
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