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A leading nonpartisan political handicapper predicts that the Democrats’ path to winning back the Senate majority in this year’s midterm elections is getting wider thanks to a rough political climate for the GOP, but that capturing control of the chamber remains a “tall order.”
The Cook Political Report on Monday shifted the ratings in four key Senate races in favor of the Democrats, but added that Republicans “remain the narrowing favorites to retain the upper chamber.”
Republicans currently control the Senate 53-47 but are battling stiff political headwinds, as the party in power in the nation’s capital traditionally loses seats in the midterms. The GOP faces a rough political climate fueled by economic concerns amid persistent inflation, as well as rising gas prices tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and President Donald Trump’s underwater approval ratings.
“Right now, we see the likeliest outcome is a one to three seat Democratic pickup — still just out of reach of the four seats the party needs to reclaim the majority,” Cook Report Senate and Governors Editor Jessica Taylor said in a release.
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The Cook Report shifted the race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis in battleground North Carolina from toss-up to lean Democrat. Former two-term Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is facing off against former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley in what will likely be one of the most expensive and competitive Senate showdowns in the nation this autumn.
In battleground Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is running for a second six-year term, the Cook Report also moved the race from toss-up to lean Democrat. Republicans view Ossoff as the most vulnerable Senate Democrat seeking re-election this year, but he has built a massive war chest while the GOP faces a three-way primary battle for its nomination.
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In red-leaning Ohio, where appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted will face off in November against former longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Cook Report shifted their ranking from lean Republican to toss up, noting that “even recent GOP polling” has indicated the race is all knotted up.
The Cook Report also shifted Nebraska, a red state where GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts will face a general election challenge from independent candidate Dan Osborn, from solid Republican to likely Republican.
“We concede that these ratings changes are coming as Trump is at a new polling low and still navigating a yet-to-be-resolved war in Iran. So it’s possible things could rebound for his party or that they could find a rallying cry to get his base out in November — a summer Supreme Court retirement certainly wouldn’t hurt,” Taylor noted.
And she pointed out that “Democrats are still contending with messy primary fights in Maine, Michigan, Minnesota and Iowa, where Republicans are rooting for flawed or bruised nominees to emerge. And Republicans will have a significant institutional financial advantage.”
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National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Sen. Tim Scott acknowledged in a Fox News Digital interview last month that “there’s no doubt the climate has gotten more and more difficult by the day, it seems like at times.”
But Scott added that he remains “incredibly optimistic” the GOP can not only hold but expand its current majority.
The rival Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), in an email to supporters titled “Democratic Odds of Taking the Senate Increase as Four Ratings Shift in Their Favor,” spotlighted the Cook Report’s ratings shift.
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Earlier this year, DSCC Chair Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand told Fox News Digital she was “very optimistic that with the quality of candidates that we have, with the recruiting failures and the poor candidates the Republicans have, and this very harmful climate that President Trump is creating, we have all the makings of a blue wave.”
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