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Just as the war on Iran dents oil production, drives up petrol prices and ricochets around the global economy, Thursday’s fire at the Geelong oil refinery causes even more domestic pain. The disturbing energy vista only heightens the need for a far faster transition to renewables and widespread electrification.
The fragility of fossil fuel supply lines and our reliance on them is now obvious, yet the newly released defence strategy downplays the strategic consequences of Australia’s fossil fuel dependence. The strategy fails to fully recognise how Australia’s expanding coal and gas exports are perpetuating a cycle of fossil fuel addiction, undermining our long-term security and claims to regional leadership.
Australia faces a profoundly altered security environment, shaped by the convergence of climate disruption and risks of nuclear escalation, but the defence strategy by the government flinches from the strategic clarity we urgently need. Focusing on the immediate period and current preoccupations and downplaying bigger threats in the future is poor strategic thinking. In reality, this is not a strategy. Rather, as so often before, it is a short-term tactical response to current events.
Many Pacific and Asian partners have long described climate change as their central security threat. But it has been sidelined by our government, yet again. What is missing is an acceptance that extreme climate impacts, geopolitical tension, authoritarianism and disinformation, along with the existence of large nuclear arsenals, form a single, interconnected security risk environment – and that these elements can reinforce one another in dangerous ways, leading to systemic breakdown.
So, we need a national security strategy to deal with these issues properly. The solutions to this crisis require a big-picture response from our government.
Yes, it is oil, but also the urea and ammonia that come from oil refining, and higher transport and agriculture costs that heighten global food insecurity and inflation.
There is helium from Qatar, necessary in chip-making and medical imaging. And sulphuric acid, which is essential in critical minerals extraction. This is a security threat on many levels.
Energy security is inseparable from national security because modern economies and military capability depend on reliable energy supplies. But up to 10 per cent of global greenhouse emissions come from the military sector if war and conflicts are included. Australia imports around 90 per cent of its refined fuel, leaving the whole economy strategically vulnerable. Australia’s fuel reserves remain well below our international commitments, increasing disruption exposure. Australians would be shocked at how quickly our military would run out of fuel, especially in northern Australia, if the north-south transport routes were cut by extreme rain and flooding in a defence emergency.
Global oil supply shocks have historically been triggered by wars and geopolitical crises, demonstrating how quickly energy security can deteriorate. It happened with Suez in 1956, the big oil shock after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, and again in wars between Iraq and Iran, two wars on Iraq, and now the war on Iran. If the Middle East was not an oil hub, most of these wars would not have happened.
Geopolitical tensions, driven in part by authoritarian governments, are obviously rising, increasing the likelihood of further oil supply disruptions. And climate change is now a driver of social conflict and war globally.
Food shortages, water stress and extreme heat have already contributed to social breakdown across the Middle East and North Africa, including Syria. As global warming intensifies, competition for water, food and resources, including oil will further increase the risks of insecurity and war. And the conflicts themselves add dramatically to climate change with increased military and reconstruction emissions. These risks are all connected. Continuing fossil fuel dependence, let alone the government’s current support for expansion, intensifies climate change impacts, creating a growing threat to Australia’s economic and national security.
The continuing reliance on imported fossil fuels in these circumstances is a gamble rather than a viable long-term strategy. Securing Australia’s energy system through rapid renewable deployment and electrification is a strategic necessity, not just an environmental goal. As we currently stand, In the event of a major long-term disruption to global oil supply, Australia would struggle to maintain essential services and economic stability. Australia has had decades of warning and opportunity to address fuel vulnerability, but both major political parties failed to act.
The government’s current policies are too slow and contradictory, relying on long-term targets that do not address immediate risks and short-term climate threats to regional stability, such as the forthcoming Super El Niño. The opposition remains in climate denial, undermining progress by promoting misinformation about renewable energy and defending the fossil fuel economy. This has created a bipartisan failure characterised by delay on one side and obstruction on the other.
A rapid transition to domestically produced renewable energy would improve Australia’s energy security. Electrification would significantly reduce reliance on imported oil. Already China with its electric vehicles has become the single biggest source of new cars and utes for Australia.
Australia’s transport system can be electrified. That’s what miners like Fortescue are already doing, as well as building self-reliant renewable energy supplies. Expanding renewable power and strengthening domestic energy systems would increase economic resilience and stability. The economic imperative is clear: renewable electricity is cheaper than coal and gas generators. Electric cars are much cheaper to charge than petrol or diesel vehicles. Australia possesses exceptional renewable energy resources, giving it a natural advantage. Short-term politics and ideology have meant that Australia failed to capitalise on these advantages fast enough, thereby diminishing our security in multiple ways.
We must now embrace the sustainable future we see, rather than defending the unsustainable past.
Chris Barrie is a former chief of the Australian Defence Force. Ian Dunlop is formerly a senior international oil and gas executive and ex-chair of the Australian Coal Association.
Chris Barrie is a former chief of the ADF and founding member of the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group.
Ian Dunlop is formerly a senior international oil and gas executive and ex-chair of the Australian Coal Association.From our partners
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