Fox News Poll: A close Senate contest is brewing in Iowa

The race to succeed Iowa’s retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is on track to be one of the closest Senate contests in 2026. Ernst, the first woman senator to represent the Hawkeye State, won by 6.5 points in 2020, and President Donald Trump carried it by 8 points that year and by 13 in 2024.

A new statewide Fox News survey finds Iowans now view Trump negatively by 13 points (42% favorable vs. 55% unfavorable). That’s a 19-point swing compared to his +6 rating (52-46%) in the November 2024 Iowa Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA) election survey. 

The last time Iowa elected a Democratic senator was Tom Harkin nearly 20 years ago (2008).  As it stands, Democrat Josh Turek has an early 4-point advantage over Republican Ashley Hinson: 50% vs. 46%.  It’s an edge that’s within the poll’s margin of error.

Among voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote, Turek holds a 15-point lead, coming largely from greater enthusiasm among Democrats (67% extremely motivated) than Republicans (53%).

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Hinson’s net favorability is more positive than Trump’s, yet still negative by 7 points (42% favorable, 49% unfavorable) while Turek is much more popular with a net positive rating of 18 points (51%-33%).  Sixteen percent have no opinion of Turek while 9% say the same of Hinson.

In the head-to-head, Turek benefits from the support of women with a college degree (65%), independents (59%), urban voters (59%), and voters under age 30 (55%).

Hinson’s backing comes from White evangelical Christians (67%), men ages 45 and over (55%), veterans (52%), and men without a college degree (52%).  Her support is strongest among MAGA Republicans, who are 23 points more likely to back her than non-MAGA GOPers (95% vs. 72%).

Overall, by 8 points, more Democrats support Turek (96%) than Republicans back Hinson (88%).

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By a 10-point margin, more of Turek’s supporters (82%) than Hinson’s (72%) say they are certain to support their candidate in November. Nearly 3 in 10 Hinson supporters say they may change their mind.

More Hinson supporters say their vote is for her rather than against her opponent compared to Turek supporters (77% vote is for Hinson vs. 60% for Turek).

Trump endorsed Hinson last September and voters are divided over her ties to the president: 50% say they are extremely or very concerned she’s too close to Trump, while 48% say they’re not very or not at all concerned.

Fewer voters are worried Turek’s positions on the issues are too liberal: 37% concerned vs. 59% not concerned. 

“Iowa has turned red during the last decade, but these data suggest a reversion to swing status,” says Republican Pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “A trifecta of issues helps Democrats: Iowans have been hit hard by rising prices, they are notoriously skeptical about foreign engagements, and the agricultural community isn’t happy about tariffs.”

In the 2024 FNVA, 31% of Iowans said they were falling behind financially. That number is now 42% — nearly 4 times as many as those saying they are getting ahead (11%).  Nearly half say they are holding steady (46%).

Four in 10 Iowans say the most important issue to their Senate vote will be inflation (39%). Healthcare (14%), immigration/border security (13%), and political divisions (13%) lag behind, and even fewer say abortion (6%), jobs/unemployment (6%), Iran (4%), and crime (2%).

Turek has the edge on voters who say their most important issues are inflation (+15 points), healthcare (+53), and political divisions (+20).  Hinson has a whopping 88-point advantage on the issue of immigration.

Like Ernst, Iowa Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds opted not to seek a third term.

The new survey finds Democratic nominee Rob Sand with a 9-point lead over Republican challenger Zach Lahn in the race to succeed Reynolds. 

Sand benefits from some crossover support, as 11% of Hinson supporters favor him for governor compared to 7% of Turek supporters backing Lahn.

More Sand supporters say they’re certain of their choice than Lahn backers (81% to 74%).

Sand enjoys a +21 personal rating: 54% favorable, 33% unfavorable.  Lahn’s ratings are negative by 3 points, with 20% unable to rate him (38% favorable, 41% unfavorable, 20% no opinion).

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Conducted June 23-27, 2026 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,003 Iowa registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file.  Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (104) and cellphones (662) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (237).  Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher.  In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.  Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.  Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.