Gavin Newsom’s Prop 50 backfires in key district as Kevin Kiley basks in likely win

California Governor Gavin Newsom’s Proposition 50 redistricting effort, designed to give Democrats an edge in this year’s elections, may have backfired in a newly redrawn Sacramento-area congressional district.

Republicans are in glee that a long-time Newsom enemy, U.S. Rep. Kevin Kiley, appears likely to have a good chance to be re-elected after Tuesday’s primary — and the Democratic candidates may be locked out of the race.

“Certain politicians think they can move lines around on a map and choose your representative for it,” Kiley said on election night. “But they forgot one thing: we still get to vote.”

Prop 50’s gerrymandered map was passed by voters last year as Newsom’s way to counter President Donald Trump’s push for redistricting in red states to gain more GOP seats in Congress.

A target of Prop 50 was to push out Kiley, who represents a safely Republican area along the California-Nevada border stretching from north in Warner Valley to south in Death Valley National Park. After the redraw that removed much of the district’s rural swaths, that district supposedly has an 8-point advantage for Democrats.

In response, Kiley decided to run in another congressional district entirely in Sacramento County and most notably, change his party affiliation from Republican to independent.

That strategy appeared to pay off. According to early results, with 53% of estimated ballots counted so far, Kiley is in the lead with nearly 27% of the vote share.

Another stunning twist: A virtually unknown Republican, Michael Stansfield, is currently in second with 22% of the vote. If Stansfield stays in second, no Democrats will advance to the general election under California’s top-two primary system — a huge embarrassment for Democrats.

“You might have a situation where a Republican, who really is not a serious candidate, but is the only candidate in the field that had an R next to his name, he might make it into the second spot,” Paul Mitchell, the architect behind the Prop 50 map, told CNN.

“I definitely think this is a big concern, and this is one of those things where Democrats had one job,” Mitchell added.

Stansfield told KCRA he was surprised given he couldn’t afford a single commercial or sign. He suspected a large Democratic field of five candidates may have splintered its voting base.

The Democrats’ best shot in the district is former state lawmaker Dr. Richard Pan, who currently is in third place at 21% of the vote. Pan is around 1,100 votes behind Stansfield.

A number of experts remain confident that Pan will eventually beat out Stansfield after more votes are counted, especially in a district that leaned heavily toward Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in 2024. Democratic voters often make up a larger share of later-counted ballots in California.

“I am grateful to the voters of the 6th Congressional District,” Pan said in a statement. “Once every vote is counted, we are confident I will advance to the General Election.”

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