Markets 
Published on
Germany and Poland were set to sign a new defence agreement Wednesday, putting aside their complicated past to strengthen European military cooperation at a time of heightened tension with Russia and growing uncertainty over US engagement in Europe.
Relations between the two neighbours in recent years have become more pragmatic in the wake of Russia’s full‑scale war on Ukraine in 2022 and the coming to power of a liberal government in Poland in 2023.
As the US weighs a partial drawdown of its military presence in Europe, Poland is keen to ensure that major European allies take a greater role in defending the continent’s eastern flank.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is seeking partners in his bid to revitalise his country’s military, the Bundeswehr, after decades of neglect with ambitions to build the strongest conventional army on NATO’s European side — an effort that will make it a central pillar of European defence in the years ahead.
Poland’s importance as a logistics hub for Ukraine, alongside its growing economy and heavy defence investment, has made it a compelling partner for Germany and other core European countries.
“We Germans need a strong Poland as an equal partner,” said Chancellor Merz in Berlin after meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in December. “This is in our fundamental interest.”
The defence agreement is set to include plans for protecting the Baltic Sea region and details about cooperation on military mobility and infrastructure, cybersecurity and new technologies.
The two countries are irreversibly tied by NATO’s defence plans, which give Germany a key role in the defence of the Baltic region, together with Poland and other countries in the central and eastern European region.
“Germany is largely responsible for the defence of the Baltic states and without cooperation with Poland, that will not happen,” said Justyna Gotkowska, deputy director of the Warsaw-based think tank Center for Eastern Studies.
The Baltic countries are often referred to as the most likely target for Russia if it were to attack NATO territory in the future, expanding its hostilities beyond Ukraine which it waged a full-scale invasion on in February 2022.
The defence agreement is expected to reaffirm mutual security obligations set out in NATO and European Union treaties, to which both countries are parties.
However, unlike bilateral treaties each has signed with France and the United Kingdom in recent years, the Polish-German agreement is inter-ministerial, focused on the practical aspects of military cooperation and does not include political mutual defence declarations that the bilateral treaties do.
Asked by Polish media why Warsaw is not signing a similar treaty with Germany, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said that President Karol Nawrocki, who came to power with the support of the national-conservative Law and Justice party, would never agree to that.
“Hell would break loose here” if a German-Polish treaty was signed, Sikorski said.
Despite Poland’s rising importance in Europe’s security architecture, Germany has preferred to make major decisions on Ukraine or Iran together with key Western European allies France and the UK only, leaving Warsaw aside.
On June 7, the three Western European countries received Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in London, discussing the role they might play in potential future peace negotiations with Russia.
Tusk said at a press conference in Warsaw after the London meeting that he had complained to Merz that his country should be part of the discussion about the future of Ukraine and the region.
“Any arrangements made without our participation will not be respected or binding for us,” said the Polish premier.
Additional sources • AP
Read the full article here
