Is Canada in recession? ‘We see some weakness,’ Carney says, touts ‘process’

Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged “some weakness” in the economy after recent GDP data showed Canada was in a technical recession in the six-month period between October 2025 and March 2026.

Carney spoke to reporters outside the House of Commons on Tuesday, and was asked if Canada is in a recession. The question came after Globe and Mail reporter Laura Stone posted video asking Carney to comment on whether Canada is in a technical recession, and he walked away without answering.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre had shared Stone’s video, saying: “This is the kind of decisive response to a recession that only a master economist and crisis manager could give.”

Carney was asked the question again by reporters while heading into cabinet on Tuesday morning.

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“This government’s been in the process of laying the foundations for a stronger, more resilient, more independent Canadian economy. That process is settling in,” Carney said.

“As we do all that, the data is going to be uneven. We see some weakness, in part because of clear decisions by the government.”

Annualized GDP in the first quarter of 2026 showed the economy contracted by 0.1 per cent, and the final quarter of 2025 was revised to show a larger decline of one per cent.

Most economists consider two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP to be the technical definition of a recession.

Several economists and Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers acknowledged the results, but said a recession should take into account multiple signals.

“I think we need to be careful not to put too much weight in any one indicator,” Rogers said in Ottawa on Monday.

“Two quarters of annualized contraction in GDP does meet one definition of a recession, but simply the fact that you have to put the term ‘technical’ in front of it sort of tells you that you really need to look past that one indicator.”

Scotiabank chief economist Derek Holt said in a note on Monday that the GDP reports should not be taken at face value, especially given a surge in gold imports.

“It would be irresponsible to make a recession call on the basis of surging gold imports that are idiosyncratic in nature versus reflective of underlying activity in the economy,” Holt said.