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Marco Rubio is rapidly cutting into JD Vance’s once-commanding lead among conservative activists, with the latest CPAC straw poll showing him surging into a strong second place as Vance’s support slips from last year — tightening what had been a lopsided race to succeed President Donald Trump.
Vance still led the 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll Saturday with 53% support, but Rubio’s 35% showing marked a sharp rise that significantly narrowed what had been a much wider gap between the two men in last year’s survey.
Last year, Vance actually posted a stronger 61% showing and Rubio languished at just 3%.
Rubio’s rise in the CPAC vote comes with his growing visibility on foreign policy and national security issues, including the Iran War, elevating his standing among conservative voters.
The widening attention on both men reflects an emerging two-lane contest for the party’s future — one anchored by Vance’s populist alignment with Trump and another driven by Rubio’s expanding policy profile.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, once seen as a top heir apparent, drew just 2% support in the same straw poll, underscoring his diminished standing among activists despite him continuing to signal openness to a future White House bid.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard were all tied at 1%.
The CPAC result is not an isolated data point but part of a broader pattern of early positioning ahead of the 2028 race, where Vance has consistently appeared near the top of initial polling and candidate watchlists.
Still, Rubio’s upward trajectory suggests the race is far from settled.
In November, Vance acknowledged he’s weighing a potential 2028 presidential run but says his immediate focus remains on governing and helping Republicans win the midterms before making any decision — while downplaying rivalry with Rubio, whom he described as a close ally despite both being viewed as leading contenders to succeed Trump.
“I would say that I’ve thought about what that moment might look like after the midterm elections, sure,” Vance, 41, told Fox News last fall.
“But I also, whenever I think about that, I try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now and my job is to do it.”
Trump ruled out running as Vance’s vice president to gain a third term in office, though he has mused about a potential 2028 face-off against New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
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