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As a strong supporter of our great military’s Operation Epic Fury, and someone who has great faith in President Trump and his judgement, I do feel obliged to weigh in on the fact that any deal cobbled together too quickly runs the risk of making the next Iranian conflict more likely, not less. I’m worried that a poor deal today could mean a bigger war tomorrow. When I sat down with Mr. Trump for our interview eight weeks ago, I raised the concern that no one can ever believe anything Iran says.
As a former Reagan guy, I am always acutely sensitive to the Gipper’s phrase “trust but verify.” Over the past five decades, numerous American presidents have made deals with Iran that were never verified. International nuclear authorities have never been able to verify Iranian promises or activities. And, as Mr. Trump has said, the whole issue was boiled over with Iran’s shocking imminent nuclear threat with enriched uranium that is greater than anyone thought. And with intercontinental ballistic missile capability with a range that is longer than anyone thought. And once again, Iran is bottling up the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt for worldwide economic blackmail.
There’s so much that we don’t know yet regarding discussions that are mostly indirect. And even now it seems that Iran has cut off any communications with America. Yet just looking at the positions of the two sides, Iran wants an end to conflicts in the region, a protocol for safe passage through the Hormuz Strait, reparations and reconstruction, and lifting sanctions. That’s their position.
Mr. Trump’s key points have been a complete end to all nuclear capabilities and facilities. No uranium enrichment on Iranian soil. Handing over Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium to the international atomic energy agency, completely decommissioning and dismantling of their nuclear sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz sites. Plus a complete end to their state sponsorship of terrorism. And an end to supporting proxy terrorist groups. A dismantling of their ballistic missile programs. And reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In other words, the two sides remain monumentally far apart, as far as we know.
So, a deal looks to be impossible. A few quotes from Mr. Trump suggest that there is no deal. When reporter asked “if Iran does not meet your demands, Mr. President, are you willing to continue the war?” Mr. Trump replied: “We’ll you’ll have to watch.” The reporter followed up: “Are you committing …” Mr. Trump then responded: “The answer is yes, but you have to watch.” He added that “the entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night.” He said “we have, we have a plan, because of the power of our military, where every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12:00 tomorrow night, where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding, and never to be used again. I mean, complete demolition by 12:00.”
Meanwhile, any talk of ceasefires or deal extensions should be rejected. This is Iran’s game. They have been playing it for decades. They love to string things along. They are experts at playing their adversaries. They love to stall. To postpone. To argue over location. Or who is invited to the high table. They’ve been doing this for so long, and I hope that Mr. Trump doesn’t let them get away with it. I doubt that he will, because he’s a man of action and instinct. He knows that letting Iran play these games with him, he will lose international respect. He knows that if he ever walked away without reopening Hormuz, it would make him look weak. And he is never weak. Ever. He is transparently a man of his word.
In all likelihood, a few ticks of the clock after 8 P.M. Eastern time will be met by the final war push by America and presumably Israel. Mr. Trump knows that at this moment, he can change history. He can end all of Iran’s capabilities: nuclear, terrorist, missiles, Hormuz, all of it. He can bring freedom and prosperity to the Middle East and the rest of the world. He can end a scourge of civilization. He can also become one of the greatest presidents in American history.
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