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This year’s federal budget deficit is now outpacing last year’s as federal spending is growing at a faster rate than tax revenue, pushing the annual shortfall closer to $2 trillion.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Thursday released its monthly budget review for the month of June, which showed the FY2026 deficit was $1.373 trillion through the first nine months of the fiscal year.
That represents a $35 billion increase in the budget deficit compared with the same period a year ago. The larger deficit was the result of a larger increase in federal spending, which is up $178 billion from a year ago while tax receipts have risen $142 billion.
Increased spending was primarily driven by the cost of servicing the federal government’s more than $39 trillion national debt as well as rising expenses for the government’s three largest mandatory spending programs – Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
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Net interest on the national debt was the largest category of increased spending in the first nine months of FY2026 and rose $98 billion compared with the same period a year ago, an increase of 13%. This was caused by the growth in the size of the national debt, as well as higher long-term interest rates – though some declines in short-term rates mitigated some of the total increase.
Social Security was the next largest driver of the increased spending, with benefit payments up $62 billion, or 5%, from a year ago due to higher average benefits and a larger number of beneficiaries. The CBO noted the increase would’ve been larger but for onetime retroactive payments that began in March 2025 under the Social Security Fairness Act.
Medicare spending rose $58 billion from a year ago, an 8% increase, due to higher enrollment and higher payment rates for healthcare services provided through the program. Medicaid spending was up $49 billion, or 10%, which was largely attributed to rising costs per enrollee.
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Increased tax revenues were driven mostly by higher receipts of individual income and payroll taxes, which combined to rise by $169 billion, or 5%, despite income tax refunds rising by $31 billion, or 10%, due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Customs duties – a category which includes tariffs – were up $55 billion from a year ago. That amounts to an increase of 51%, which CBO attributed to President Donald Trump’s executive actions that raised tariffs on U.S. trading partners.
However, tariff refunds began to be paid following a Supreme Court ruling in February that struck down some of the tariffs, which reduced tariff revenues by about $70 billion in May and June.
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Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), noted in a statement that this year’s deficit has now surpassed the prior year’s deficit and it’s “likely to stay that way for the rest of the fiscal year.”
“We will likely borrow $2 trillion or more this fiscal year – an astounding figure given that the economy keeps growing and unemployment is low,” she explained. “This is likely the tip of the iceberg; borrowing will soar if policymakers fail to get our entitlements under control, enact further unpaid-for tax cuts or spending increases, and otherwise ignore the need to cut spending and increase revenues.”
MacGuineas noted that Social Security and Medicare are within seven years of exhausting their trust funds, which would trigger across-the-board benefit cuts to both programs, and urged lawmakers to take steps to rein in federal budget deficits.
“None of this is normal. Policymakers should instead be targeting a much more sustainable deficit at 3% of GDP, putting together a bipartisan commission to address our fiscal situation and entitlements, and perhaps most importantly, being honest with the public about the grave dangers we face by remaining on this unsustainable path,” she added.
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