Markets 
Australia’s birth rate is taking a double hit, with one in four women aged 18 to 45 saying they will not have children, while most women who do intend to have kids say they will have smaller families than in the past.
The nation’s fertility rate – the expected births per woman – last peaked in 2008 at 2.02 but has since fallen by 25 per cent to a record low of 1.48 in 2024. A fertility rate of 2.1 is needed for the population to be replaced from one generation to the next without migration.
The fertility rate is a key driver of future population and age structure. Lower fertility means fewer workers entering the labour force over time, with consequences for workforce size, productivity growth, family dynamics and the tax base needed to support an ageing population. In Australia, the effects of lower fertility have been offset by migration.
Exclusive polling for this masthead by the Resolve Political Monitor shows the cost of raising children, housing affordability and worries about the world’s future are all working to limit intended family size for many young people, or deter them from becoming parents altogether.
The results show middle children are becoming increasingly scarce in Australia, with only 9 per cent of those aged 18 to 45 years reporting they have three or more children.
But single-child families are becoming more common; 25 per cent of those aged 35 to 45 reported having one child, 10 percentage points higher than those aged over 45 (15 per cent).
Elise Tobin, a 41-year-old campaign manager, is one of those opting for one child; her daughter Hazel is four years old.
Tobin and her partner met in their mid-30s and “had a conversation quite early” about whether they wanted to become parents.
“My partner was very upfront that he did want to have children, but he just wanted to have one,” says Tobin. “At that point I didn’t really know if I was going to get the opportunity to have children, so one sounded great.”
The couple discussed having a second child after Hazel’s arrival but agreed “one child felt really good and right for us”.
Financial considerations, especially housing, played a “huge part” in that choice.
Tobin lives in a two-bedroom flat in south-east Melbourne and would have had to move to a bigger home to accommodate more children.
“That would put a lot of financial pressure on us and pressure to work more and have less time with Hazel,” she said.
The couple is also deeply concerned about global warming, so keeping a smaller climate footprint also “felt right” for them.
“There’s no right or wrong with family size, it’s whatever suits you,” Tobin says.
“For many families, the reality is they can only afford a two‑bedroom home. That directly shapes how many children they can contemplate.”
Terry Rawnsley
Among the under-45s surveyed who said they chose to have one child, the most common reasons for that preference was the cost of child-rearing (53 per cent), “one is enough” (52 per cent) and a desire to concentrate efforts and resources on a single child (40 per cent).
KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley says the high cost of housing and the growing prevalence of apartment living has contributed to smaller family sizes, especially in big cities.
“For many families, the reality is they can only afford a two‑bedroom home,” he says.
“That directly shapes how many children they can contemplate. One child in a two-bedroom apartment makes sense, three would be challenging. And when you’re staring down a big mortgage or high rent, it can be hard to feel comfortable having more kids.”
Another subgroup of survey respondents aged under 45 with one child said their family size was due to “external factors” rather than being a conscious choice.
Among that group, 48 per cent said “running out of time” due to age was a reason for them having one child, while 46 per cent said it was due to “not having access to a home of the right size”.
The latest figures show Australians had 23,000 fewer babies in 2024 than in 2018 – even though the total population rose by about 2 million during that time.
“We’ve changed,” says Australian National University professor Edith Gray, who researches the demography of families and childbearing in Australia.
“For many, one or two children seems to satisfy the need to be a parent. One of the things that we see very clearly in the data is increases in those who’ve got no children, increases in those having only one child and huge decreases in having three or more. When people are not having large families, that’s really having a big impact on the fertility rate.”
Gray says this trend can be seen in many high-income countries with high levels of education and high levels of work involvement for both men and women.
The survey found 23 per cent of women and 21 per cent of men aged under 45 do not intend to have any children. Most said the decision was their own rather than one imposed by external factors.
The top reason given for that choice was “I enjoy my freedom” (44 per cent of that survey subgroup) followed by concerns about the cost of children (42 per cent) and a preference for pets (42 per cent).
Other reasons were worries about the state of the world, especially climate change, and a desire not to pass poor physical or mental health on to offspring.
The survey also asked those aged over 45 why their age cohort tended to have more children than today. Nearly one third said “we started our relationship or had children earlier”, while a quarter said “it cost less to raise a child” in the past. A quarter also said having “someone at home” as a full-time carer was a contributor.
Jim Reed, the director of Resolve Strategic, who conducted the polling, said older survey respondents appeared to acknowledge that “the world has changed and attitudes to relationships and parenthood have changed compared to the Australia of 30 or 40 years ago”.
The fertility slump is not unique to Australia – many nations in Europe and parts of Asia have had far steeper declines, triggering warnings of a “demographic winter” in some. South Korea has the world’s lowest fertility rate, at around 0.8.
The highly regarded Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, which questions a sample of 17,000 people over the course of their lifetime, shows the “preference for small families and for childlessness” rose markedly between 2005 and 2023. The share of younger women and men who desire three or more children declined sharply in that period.
Melbourne University researcher Dr Inga Lass, who analysed HILDA’s data on fertility intentions, said the biggest worry people express about having children is the cost involved.
“What you can see is that concerns around the cost of children have really increased in importance over time,” she said.
Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.
Matt Wade is a senior economics writer at The Sydney Morning Herald.Connect via X or email.From our partners
Read the full article here
