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After a terrible week last week for sports betting in general, but specifically baseball, I found my way to get into the baseball gods’ favor this week and have won four of the past five plays I’ve put out. When I do get hot, I want to ride the streak as long as possible, but you also have to stay grounded and make sure you don’t unleash your bankroll because you never know when it can stop. I don’t think it will stop in this game between the Pirates and Phillies.
We are now more than halfway through the season, and the Pittsburgh Pirates are .500 for the season. That’s an accomplishment for this team, but not where they ultimately want to end up for the year. They probably need to set their sights on a Wild Card spot at this point, though. They are 10.5 games back of the division, which isn’t insurmountable. However, the Brewers are a very good team, and I think other teams ahead of them are going to have more resources to make moves at the trade deadline.
The Pirates will need to find a way to get some pitching. Their offense has improved, but only one starter has been truly reliable, and he takes the mound tonight. Paul Skenes is on the hill today, and even though this is the worst ERA of his young career, he is still a top pitcher in the league. He is 6-7 for the season with a 3.10 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He is also ninth in strikeouts in the league. The Pirates have not done well in his starts lately; they’ve lost eight straight games he has started. In fairness, he has allowed four or more runs in three of those starts, so it isn’t just a lack of run support. The Phillies knocked him around to start this losing streak as he went five innings, allowed five runs on six hits.
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The Philadelphia Phillies are the poster child for showing what can happen if you make moves. They cut ties with their manager, and it instantly turned their season around. They come into today’s game with a 48-38 record for the year. They were 9-19 on April 26th, which means they’ve gone from 10 games under to 10 games over .500. They have to be considered one of the favorites to win the World Series, and they are just 2.5 games back of Atlanta for the division crown at the moment. There is still a long time for both of these to be figured out, though.
Before we get there, we have one of the reasons I think the Phillies should be considered a major threat to win the World Series taking the mound today. Zack Wheeler is going to take the ball against Skenes in what should be the best pitching matchup of the day. Wheeler is having yet another phenomenal season. He started the season on the injured list, so he doesn’t qualify for the lead in anything, but he is 8-1 for the year with a 2.03 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. The Phillies have been great in his starts, winning 10 of his 12 outings. He allowed just six earned runs over five starts in June, not allowing more than two earned in any game.
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Wheeler faced the Pirates in May and dominated. He went seven innings, allowed four hits, and no runs. Overall, he has been dominant against the Pirates, allowing just 24 hits to them over 128 at-bats in his career. Marcell Ozuna is a guy you’d want to fade today as he is just 12-for-64 with 25 strikeouts against Wheeler.
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The under is going to be something almost everyone wants to bet on today. I am a bit surprised that the total isn’t lower, but that may be due to Skenes not pitching quite as well as he has in past seasons. I think he will be better in this game than he was the first time he faced the Phillies. He seems to learn well and make adjustments. I don’t know who will win, but I think we should get under 3.5 runs through five innings at +105. If you want, I really like Wheeler under 2.5 earned runs allowed as well.
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