Markets 
Senior figures within One Nation fear their Farrer candidate, David Farley, may not last the distance with the party if elected at Saturday’s byelection amid a turbulent campaign marked by policy disagreements and internal tensions.
Several party sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said concerns about Farley’s long-term loyalty and discipline had intensified in the past few weeks, particularly after he failed to alert leader Pauline Hanson, chief of staff James Ashby or senior figure Barnaby Joyce before a report last week detailing his shifting political allegiances.
The omission prompted fiery discussions within the party after the story was published, according to two insiders.
Farley has faced scrutiny over his political history, including a past attempt to seek Labor preselection and earlier praise for independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe, whom he described as a “straight shooter”. Nationals figures staffing polling booths last week also told One Nation volunteers that Farley had actively campaigned for Milthorpe in 2025, though no evidence has emerged to support that claim.
Farley told One Nation leaders only after the report that he had considered joining Labor before deciding against it. However, concerns from his party about him being a “flight risk” if elected have persisted within the campaign.
At a candidates panel in the electorate last week, Farley said: “Democracy doesn’t live in a museum. It actually lives in a gymnasium. It’s active.”
“When I got in the door [for Labor], it was obvious that, culturally, I didn’t fit. My comments on [Julia] Gillard don’t fit them, and I got out of the door.” In 2012, Farley had compared the then-Labor prime minister to a “non-productive old cow”.
He broke with One Nation policy at a separate candidate forum last week by suggesting it was “probably not” an issue if Australia’s net migration reached 306,000 – more than double the party’s proposed cap of 130,000 migrants a year.
“If we’re successful in One Nation’s water policies, we’re going to need more labour, and we’re going to need more labour quickly, skilled labour,” he said.
“So for anyone to be able to say ‘what is the number today’, it should be addressed as what are we doing with productivity and what are we doing with capacity building, then you will get a true number that’s required for Australia.”
A One Nation source said: “If Farley wins this race, it will be because Pauline’s brand is impenetrable at the moment. The win will be in spite of him.”
Another source said that it would be wise for Farley to use Hanson’s new plane, donated by mining billionaire Gina Rinehart last week, to take a holiday during the last week of the campaign.
Liberal senator James Paterson said on Sky News Australia last week that Farley had “turned out to be quite a disaster”.
“I imagine One Nation having serious second thoughts about him,” Paterson said.
Farley was contacted for comment. He wrote on social media on Monday: “I’ve never seen anything quite like this campaign. Every time you turn on the telly or open the computer, there’s another attack ad.”
“I’m not naive about politics. But there’s something a bit telling when all your opponents can manage is to attack the other bloke. Somewhere along the way, they forgot to come up with a plan,” he wrote.
One Nation’s concerns are sharpened by its own history, with almost 75 per cent of its state and federal representatives – 27 of 37 elected before 2025 – failing to complete a single term with the party.
Much of that instability has been driven by internal conflict, with critics pointing to Hanson’s “top-down” leadership style and efforts to entrench centralised control in the party’s constitution.
Four of the eight federal One Nation senators elected have failed to serve a full term, amid disqualifications, internal disputes and abrupt resignations. In NSW, every One Nation MP to enter the upper house – elected or having defected – has quit, while all 11 of the party’s original Queensland MPs exited within a single term.
Despite the drama surrounding Farley, One Nation remains confident of winning on Saturday, particularly with preferences from Liberal and Nationals voters. Insiders say there is no evidence that support for Farley has diminished, largely underpinned by public backing for Hanson. In recent polls published by Redbridge and Essential, Hanson is the most popular politician in the country.
The Liberal Party’s decision to preference One Nation over Milthorpe was partly driven by a calculation that a Hanson-backed victory would be easier to dismantle at the next election. The party’s strategists view Milthorpe as capable of entrenching herself in the seat, following the independent blueprint of Cathy McGowan and Helen Haines in nearby Indi.
Joyce blamed “the pressure of a campaign” for Farley’s comments, particularly on immigration, and said on Sunday that the party would need to ensure stronger oversight if it secured more lower house seats.
“We have to have some oversight and some process to make sure we look like a professional, diligent outfit,” Joyce said. “Otherwise, you’re just going to have a range of people who have never been there before.”
Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.
Rob Harris is the national correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age based in Canberra. He is a former Europe correspondent.Connect via email.
Paul Sakkal is Chief Political Correspondent. He previously covered Victorian politics and won a Walkley award and the 2025 Press Gallery Journalist of the Year. Contact him securely on Signal @paulsakkal.14.Connect via X or email.From our partners
Read the full article here
