Rubio announces framework deal between Israel and Lebanon as experts warn Iran will fight to sabotage it

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the U.S.-brokered framework agreement between Jerusalem and Lebanon on Friday as a robust first step toward peace and a rejection of Iranian interference in the region.

The breakthrough could lead to a path of diplomatic normalization between the two countries, Lebanon and Israel, that are in a formal state of war. The framework agreement may impede the Iran-backed terrorist movement Hezbollah that has gained control over parts of the Lebanese state, according to experts.

Hezbollah and Israel have fought two wars since the terrorist organization joined Hamas’ invasion of Israel in Oct. 7, 2023 and following U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran in February.

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Rubio said, “Today is a good day in that we are happy to announce a framework agreement between the sovereign government of Lebanon and, of course, the government of Israel, with a mediation and support of the United States of America, that begins to put in place a framework for lasting peace and security.”

He added, “And that’s what these two nations deserve.”

According to the Press Service of Israel (TPS-IL), Netanyahu termed the deal “a severe blow to Iran.” He added that the Islamic Republic seeks to force an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and “essentially Israel, Lebanon and the United States are telling them: This is none of your business. You have no role in southern Lebanon — neither you, nor Hezbollah nor any other terrorist organization.”

U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, wrote on X:” Was there all week but had to fly back to Israel Thursday night. Historic opportunity but key is disarming Hezbollah, evil terrorists who have killed Americans. Israel, Lebanon sign framework peace agreement following US-backed negotiations.”

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun, in an Arabic-language X Post, thanked the U.S. administration, led by President Donald Trump, “for its efforts in hosting and facilitating the negotiations and for supporting Lebanon’s position.”

Rubio’s optimistic announcement encouraged some veteran Lebanon experts about a historic opportunity for peace, while others warned about the necessity to proceed with caution.

Guila Fakhoury, whose father, Amer, was kidnapped by Hezbollah in 2019, told Fox News Digital that “Today marks a historic achievement. For the first time since 1983, Lebanon and Israel have reached an agreement through direct negotiations. It also represents a fundamental shift in regional dynamics, demonstrating that Lebanon’s future need not be contingent upon broader regional negotiations or arrangements negotiated through proxy influence. In that sense, this agreement supersedes previous efforts to tie Lebanon’s stability and sovereignty to external agendas.”

Fakhoury, added, “If these commitments are fulfilled, this agreement could become the foundation for long-term cooperation, security, economic opportunity and shared stability that benefits both the Lebanese and Israeli people.”

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She continued, “However, whether this agreement brings lasting peace and stability will depend entirely on its implementation. The Lebanese state and its legitimate institutions must be the ones to create stability, not external actors or armed organizations operating outside government authority.”

Walid Phares, a leading U.S. expert on Lebanon and the Mideast, told Fox News Digital, “This agreement is just a ceasefire not a conduit to a larger peace deal. Hezbollah take orders from Iran. It’s clear Tehran will complain about such a deal and pressure the negotiators to get some statement from Washington asserting the Islamic Republic’s say over Lebanon. Hezbollah will attack the deal but will pray Israel won’t strike. The Trump administration will have to calibrate between the Rubio-sponsored agreement on Lebanon and the fragility of the situation in the Gulf.”

He added, “The regime is telling Hezbollah ‘keep the narrative up and radical but let us get the money first.’ Israel is giving its public something and mindful of Trump’s concerns about the deal with Iran. The Lebanese government is hoping their army does not have to engage. The only unknown is the ability of the Lebanese opposition to rise and resist Hezbollah. We are still inside the Lebanese status quo.”

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Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, wrote on X: “Absolutely a breakthrough,” This is the first agreement between Israel and Lebanon since 1983. A clear and loud ‘NO’ to Iran as it challenges its efforts to control Lebanon ‘s file.”

She added, “But as the 1983 agreement was toppled by the bad guys then (Assad regime), Iran will try everything to make sure this one fails as well. Lebanon and Israel have a responsibility in making sure this agreement is protected, and its implementation is successful. We will probably not have another chance.”