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Support for Pauline Hanson’s party has fallen for the first time in four months and shifted to the Coalition as women and immigrants turn their backs on the One Nation leader over key elements of her policy agenda.
An exclusive Resolve Political Monitor poll shows support for One Nation has slipped three points in July to 26 per cent while support for the Coalition has risen by the same amount to 23 per cent. Labor support was steady at 28 per cent while the Greens were unchanged at 12 per cent.
One Nation enjoyed a five-point surge in support in June, with the party more popular than either the Coalition or Labor. Hanson was the preferred prime minister, her support being double that of Opposition Leader Angus Taylor.
But after a month in which Hanson delivered her first speech to the National Press Club and outlined policies including her support for an Australian “monoculture”, key metrics of her personal standing also slipped in the poll of 2252 people taken between July 6 and 11.
Anthony Albanese was preferred prime minister among 33 per cent of those surveyed, a four-point lift, while the figure increased by five points for Angus Taylor, who hit 21 per cent. Hanson’s support tumbled by eight points to 25 per cent.
Albanese’s performance was rated as good by 39 per cent of respondents, a four-point lift over June and his best rating since December. Voters also lifted their rating of Taylor, up by three points to 41 per cent. Hanson, included for the first time in this question, was highest rated at 45 per cent.
But the One Nation leader suffered a steep fall in her likeability rating, which reached 14 points in June. It fell to three points in July, while support for One Nation (from 16 to eight points) and Barnaby Joyce (plus one point to minus two) also slipped.
In June, 28 per cent of respondents believed Hanson would lead One Nation to victory at the next federal election compared with 34 per cent who expected Albanese to remain in power. This month, expectations of a One Nation government have slumped to 19 per cent while 35 per cent expect Albanese to remain in The Lodge. Just 18 per cent believe the Coalition is on track for victory.
Despite the swings in primary support between the Coalition and One Nation, the overall political landscape has not changed. Labor is still in front of both conservative parties on a two-party-preferred basis.
Resolve pollster Jim Reed said there had been a shift away from Hanson among key demographics over the past month, including among people born overseas, people aged between 18 and 34, and those in full employment.
“The two largest losses for [Hanson] are among immigrants and females, and suggest her comments in areas like multiculturalism and abortion have shown One Nation to be the party of old after all. Mutton dressed as mutton, in policy terms,” he said.
“All are signs the varnish has come off a little.”
The poll shows voters support some of Hanson’s key policy pronouncements. Half agreed with her claim that many young workers were lazy, compared with just 23 per cent who disagreed, while 53 per cent supported her argument that the nation’s immigration settings were wrong.
Hanson’s concerns about the priorities of the NDIS (72 per cent) and that poverty was a serious problem that needed to be addressed by the government (73 per cent) were also strongly supported.
But more people (39 per cent) disagreed with her view that Australia would be better off if it was “monocultural” (33 per cent support), while her attacks on the SBS, the ABC and the United Nations were backed by only a minority of respondents.
Pressed on Hanson’s monoculture plan, Joyce said on Sunday that he did not believe in multiculturalism, while linking the issue to the Incan empire of pre-Columbus South America.
“You’re multi-ethnicity, you’re multi-religion, there’s a whole range of that, but to be in Australia, you have to come to the point of an Australian culture, and I stick to that,” he told Sky News.
“And maybe being a little bit trite, but as an example, Incas had a culture – they believed that you chop people’s heads off, roll them down the outside of the temple, pull out their beating heart, and the sun rises. Now that’s a culture – it’s just completely and utterly intolerable.”
But Education Minister Jason Clare said One Nation and the Coalition were in denial about the strength of multiculturalism and its important role in Australia.
“I tell little kids when I go to primary school – you get to do that a bit as education minister – that Australia’s a bit like a fruit salad,” he said.
“We all like apples and oranges and bananas, but they’re better when they’re all together. And that’s Australia. We’re not all the same, but we all get on and work together.”
Hanson also argued it should be easier to sack people. While 32 per cent of those surveyed supported her view, 36 per cent opposed it.
Reed said there was support for Hanson on some key issues, but not all.
“They draw the line when she mixes these themes with sacking people, multiculturalism, scrapping SBS, as well as focusing on abortion, the UN,” he said.
In a problem for Taylor, the Coalition is still ranked below Albanese and the government on key measures including whether it is a better communicator, has a united team, is honest and trustworthy and is best for the country.
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Shane Wright is a senior economics correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X or email.From our partners
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