Sweden heads to polls in close election race dominated by security

Sweden heads to the polls on Sunday in a tight general election that could see the left-wing opposition oust the government after a campaign dominated by concerns over healthcare and the welfare state amid fears over Europe’s security.

Opinion polls have pointed to a victory for the centre-left opposition headed by the Social Democrats.

But Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s centre-right coalition and its parliamentary ally, the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, have narrowed the gap in the final weeks of campaigning and the election could go down to the wire, experts say.

“There’s still a bit of suspense. But all the polls have for a long time shown a very large lead and it’s usually difficult to make up that much ground,” Stockholm University political scientist Jan Teorell told the AFP news agency.

Three polls in the past week credited the four parties on the left with around 50% and the four on the right with around 47%.

The right-wing bloc has vowed to pursue its crackdown on crime and immigration, after years of shootings and bombings linked to organised crime networks.

But the bloc has failed to muster the momentum that swept it to power four years ago.

“It came to power very much on a programme to bring down crime and energy prices. And crime and petrol prices have come down, so those issues no longer top voters’ agendas,” Teorell said.

A far-right government?

The left has vowed to raise taxes on banks and high incomes to invest in healthcare and schools and help struggling households face rising costs amid growing economic inequality.

Opposition leader Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats, Sweden’s biggest party, told AFP the election was “about what country Sweden should be.”

Voters were faced with the choice of “a Sweden that is more like Sweden, where people have a job and where we can improve our welfare” or “a completely different country with a government dominated by Sweden Democrats, a far-right party founded by neo-Nazis.”

The far-right, the second-biggest party with around 20% of votes, is hoping to enter government for the first time.

The populist party has promised Swedes the lowest gas prices and migration in Europe and dental care reform.

Kristersson became prime minister in 2022 after his minority coalition reached an unprecedented agreement with the Sweden Democrats, giving the former political pariahs significant influence over government policy, especially crime and immigration, in exchange for its support.

Kristersson has promised the far right cabinet posts, including the migration portfolio, if re-elected.

Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Akesson insists his party should hold several key portfolios, but he is not vying for Kristersson’s job.

“There will be more elections to come, so I’d like to aim for the post of prime minister in 2030 or later,” he told AFP in August.

Security

Just over a week before the election, extremism watchdog Expo revealed that a Sweden Democrat civil servant in parliament had shared pro-Russian propaganda for years.

Kristersson, dogged by scandals during his term, reacted sharply.

“We are in the middle of a European war,” he told Aftonbladet daily.

“You can’t have people who spread pro-Russian narratives working in parliament.”

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Sweden ended decades of military non-alignment and joined NATO and is massively rearming and boosting civil preparedness.

It has blamed Moscow for cyberattacks, disinformation and intelligence operations, as well as drone and jet incidents over the Baltic.

There is broad consensus between the government and opposition on NATO and defence issues, and no major policy changes are expected if Sweden pivots to a left-wing government, Teorell predicted.

“But there would be higher taxes and more investment in the welfare system,” Teorell said.

Leading industrialist Jacob Wallenberg told the Financial Times he was “deeply concerned” about what that would mean for the thriving tech sector.

With the right-wing bloc trailing in the polls and the four left-wing parties splintered ideologically, thorny negotiations may be needed to form a government.

But who are the main contenders vying for top job on Sunday?

Ulf Kristersson

The 62-year-old former gymnast became prime minister in 2022 after his right-wing coalition reached a deal giving the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats influence over government policy in exchange for their support.

While the arrangement with the far right secured power for Kristersson’s Moderate Party, it has also hurt them in opinion polls, with the party losing voter support after just a few months.

Kristersson had previously vowed never to negotiate with the Sweden Democrats.

A Tintin fan with a degree in economics, Kristersson has as prime minister overseen increased defence spending, strict migration policies and a crackdown on organised crime.

He has also been embroiled in several scandals, including scrutiny over a foundation run by his wife, Lutheran priest Birgitta Ed and the hiring of a childhood friend to serve as national security advisor.

Jimmie Akesson

As leader of the Sweden Democrats for more than 20 years, Akesson has transformed the far-right party with neo-Nazi roots from a political pariah to heavyweight contender whose support is key for the right wing to secure power.

Since 2022, when the minority right-wing government has ruled with the far right’s support, Akesson has succeeded in imposing his hardline policies on migration and crime.

With immigration drastically reduced, the far right’s focus is now on “re-migration”, or incentivising immigrants to leave Sweden.

In late June 2025, the party released a lengthy report on its origins, detailing its past ties with fascist and Nazi organisations and members’ xenophobic and antisemitic views.

Akesson apologised on behalf of the party, though he still promotes nationalist ideology.

Magdalena Andersson

Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson, who in 2021-2022 was the first woman to serve as Swedish prime minister, is a hard-nosed technocrat schooled in finance with a reputation for being impatient, blunt and frugal.

The 59-year-old is hoping to oust Kristersson with pledges to strengthen the country’s welfare state.

She has led the Social Democrats since November 2021, when she took over the party leadership from Stefan Löfven.

Andersson served as finance minister for seven years before becoming prime minister.

In 10 months, she guided Sweden through a period of turbulent domestic politics, the COVID pandemic and led the charge for the country’s historic application to join NATO, before losing the 2022 election to Kristersson.