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International tourist arrivals grew by 2% in the first quarter of 2026, despite disruptions caused by the crisis in the Middle East in March.
According to the latest data from UN Tourism, some 307 million tourists travelled internationally in the first quarter of 2026, about six million more than in the same period of 2025.
Experts predict that tourists will continue to seek value for money this year, but could also opt for destinations closer to home in response to elevated prices.
International tourism continues to show resilience
The Middle East conflict is expected to reduce growth in international arrivals by one to two percentage points below UN Tourism’s initial forecast of 3% to 4% for 2026, depending on the conflict’s duration and scope.
Aside from disruptions to flights to, from and within the Middle East and effects on traveller confidence, the spike in oil prices and jet fuel shortage in some markets are increasing air fares and reducing flight capacity in other regions too.
Even so, international tourism continued to show resilience in the first quarter of 2026.
“At a time of growing geopolitical and economic pressure, this reinforces tourism’s wider role in supporting economies, creating opportunity and sustaining communities far beyond the sector itself,” said UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais.
Paraguay, New Caledonia, El Salvador: Where tourism is growing
Europe, the world’s largest travel destination region, saw over 130 million international tourists in Q1 2026, a 4% increase, building on the strong momentum of 2025 (+5%).
Some destinations benefited from the redirection of tourism flows. Southern Mediterranean Europe and Northern Europe both saw a 4% increase in arrivals in Q1 2026, while Central Eastern Europe (+6%) continued its recovery.
In the Middle East, however, arrivals dropped 14% in Q1 2026, impacted by the conflict. Several Gulf destinations recorded strong declines this quarter, while Egypt (+16%) saw a robust increase in arrivals.
Among destinations reporting growth in arrivals for the first three months of 2026, the best performers include: Paraguay (+46%), New Caledonia (+45%), El Salvador (+43%), Mongolia (+39%), Palau (+37%) and Uzbekistan (+37%).
Several countries reported double-digit growth in Q1 2026, among which Pakistan (+60%), the Republic of Korea (+38%), Morocco (+24%), Brunei (+22%) and Brazil (+12%).
Middle East crisis and rising travel costs
According to the latest survey of the Panel of Tourism Experts, the Middle East conflict, high transport and accommodation costs, as well as other economic factors, are the three main challenges affecting international tourism in 2026.
Almost two-thirds of panel experts (64%) indicated that the Middle East conflict is negatively affecting travel demand for their destination, of which 43% consider the impact to be moderate and 21% high. Another 36% indicated the conflict is having little or no impact on demand.
Against this backdrop, tourists are expected to continue to seek value for money but could also opt for destinations closer to home in response to elevated prices.
Around 61% of experts said the Middle East conflict is reducing inbound tourism to their destination. Conversely, 17% reported an increase in inbound tourism because of disruptions in other destinations. Around 14% of responses indicated an increase in domestic tourism, with domestic travel replacing some outbound tourism.
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