What’s driving the increase in violent incidents involving transgender individuals? Expert weighs in

As Americans grapple with yet another mass shooting perpetrated by a transgender individual, a broader national debate is unfolding over whether warning signs are being ignored and whether institutions charged with preventing violence are falling short. 

A retired FBI agent says years of behavioral threat assessments reveal a troubling constant: in case after case, there was a point where someone could have stepped in — but the system failed to act.

The Rhode Island shooting has also fueled fresh debate over violent crime and gender identity, with several high-profile commentators questioning whether a pattern is emerging.

“Why are there so many violent trans shooters, and is #BigPharma fueling the violence?” Fox News host Rachel Campos-Duffy asked on X, framing her question around whether federal health officials are adequately studying mental health treatment, pharmaceutical use and hormone therapy in cases involving transgender suspects.

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Campos-Duffy said she pressed Calley Means and the Department of Health and Human Services on what research, if any, is being conducted and what policies could be implemented “to find answers and end the carnage.”

Radio host Clay Travis similarly cited several recent attacks and argued the “trans violence rate is off the charts.”

Shootings frequently cited in the debate include:

2018 – Aberdeen, Maryland
Snochia Mosley, a transgender man, killed three co-workers at a Rite Aid distribution center before dying by suicide, authorities said.

2019 – Highlands Ranch, Colorado (STEM School Highlands Ranch)
Alec McKinney, a transgender student, and Devon Erickson carried out a school shooting that left one student dead and eight injured. McKinney told investigators bullying over gender identity was a factor.

2022 – Colorado Springs, Colorado
Anderson Lee Aldrich, who authorities said identified as nonbinary, opened fire inside a LGBTQ+ nightclub, killing five people. 

2023 – Nashville, Tennessee (Covenant School)
Audrey Hale, who police identified as a transgender man, killed six people, including three children. 

2025 – Minneapolis, Minnesota (Annunciation Catholic Church)
Robin Westman, who authorities said identified as a transgender, killed two children during a church service before dying by suicide. 

2026 – Tumbler Ridge, British Columbia
Jesse Van Rootselaar, who police say identified as trans, allegedly killed eight people, including five students and one teacher, before dying from a self-inflicted gunshot wound. 

2026 – Pawtucket, Rhode Island
Robert Dorgan, who police say identified as a transgender, also known as Roberta Esposito, killed three people, including family members, before taking his own life. 

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Advocacy groups strongly reject claims that transgender identity is linked to mass violence.

GLAAD says there is “no evidence of escalating violence committed by LGBTQ people,” citing Gun Violence Archive data showing that of 5,748 mass shootings recorded between January 1, 2013 and September 15, 2025, five confirmed perpetrators were transgender — representing less than 0.1% of incidents.

“Accusing people from a small and vulnerable community of mass shooting crimes is an effort to further dehumanize, demonize and promote fear about transgender and nonbinary people,” the organization states.

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Retired FBI agent Jason Pack cautioned against framing recent acts of violence through a political or demographic lens, instead urging a focus on systemic breakdowns in intervention.

“Whatever your views on gender identity, and Americans hold strong, sincere views on all sides of this, I think most people agree that every human being in crisis deserves intervention before tragedy strikes,” Pack said.

From a law enforcement standpoint, he stressed that identity alone is not what threat assessment teams evaluate.

“Law enforcement and behavioral threat assessments don’t look at groups by identity alone. They never have. What they look at is individual behavior, individual history, individual warning signs,” he explained.

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According to Pack, investigators often uncover missed opportunities for intervention: warning comments that went unreported, mental health contacts that weren’t followed up, family members unsure where to turn, or school flags that stalled inside bureaucratic systems.

“That’s the pattern worth examining,” he said. “Not who these individuals were demographically, but what failed them and what failed the public before they ever picked up a weapon.”

Pack pointed to what he described as a recurring “crossing point” — a moment when authorities, schools or families could have acted but didn’t, whether due to underfunded threat assessment teams, unused red flag laws or crisis hotlines that failed to connect callers with help.

“The answer lies in fixing the pipeline that keeps failing and that protects everybody,” he said.

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Forensic psychiatrist Dr. Carole Lieberman said there are often identifiable psychological patterns that precede acts of mass violence.

“The shooter’s trajectory to mass violence begins with having had a dysfunctional childhood, where they were abused or neglected,” Lieberman said. She added that many later become isolated or bullied, immerse themselves in violent media, abuse substances or develop a belief that “no one likes them,” which can deepen resentment and hatred toward others.

In her view, the tipping point often comes after a destabilizing life event.

“After they sink ever deeper into their own world, a traumatic event occurs that sets them off — such as a rejection, a breakup, the death of someone they care about, being fired from a job or another sudden event that shakes up their world and causes them to believe ‘the time is now’ to punish others,” she said.

Lieberman echoed concerns about missed intervention opportunities, saying warning signs are often visible long before violence occurs.

“The first potential intervention is from parents who notice that their child is displaying unusual behavior, such as retreating into a shell with grades going downhill,” she said. “Unfortunately, too many times, even when a person is brought to a mental health professional, the depth of their mental problems is missed and they are not treated sufficiently.”

She argued that stronger early-intervention systems in schools, including increased access to school psychologists and continued crisis counseling, could help identify at-risk students before they escalate.

“There needs to be intervention systems set up in schools to identify kids with problems early on,” Lieberman said.

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When asked about public discussion surrounding suspects’ gender identity in some recent cases, Lieberman said she believes identity-related distress may play a role for some individuals.

“There is an increasing trend for some mass shooters to be trans,” she said, attributing that in certain cases to what she described as intense self-loathing and anger — a view disputed by LGBTQ advocacy groups who cite national data showing transgender perpetrators represent a fraction of overall mass shooting cases.

George Brauchler, the District Attorney for Colorado’s 23rd Judicial District who prosecuted the 2019 STEM School Highlands Ranch case, said the focus should remain on prevention — not politics.

“We must avoid sensationalism on each side of this issue and engage in a sober effort to assess if there are any common threads that precede mass casualty crimes,” he said. “Victims yet-to-be deserve a sincere effort to minimize their numbers free of political posturing.”

Stepheny Price covers crime, including missing persons, homicides and migrant crime. Send story tips to stepheny.price@fox.com.