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Benjamin Netanyahu has a strong chance of winning next month’s Israeli elections despite underwhelming poll numbers and major political challenges, according to a former top adviser to the Israeli prime minister.
Melbourne-born Mark Regev, a former senior adviser to Netanyahu and Israeli ambassador to the United Kingdom, said Netanyahu has proven his doubters wrong many times before and could remain Israel’s leader after the nation votes on October 27.
“In Hebrew, he is known as a magician. He’s always pulling a rabbit out of his hat with politics. He’s only there for a long time because he keeps winning elections,” Regev said in an interview in Canberra.
Regev said Netanyahu’s political career was widely thought to be over when he lost power in 1999 after a single term in office, yet returned to the prime ministership a decade later. Netanyahu also swiftly returned after losing power in 2021, returning in 2022.
Some analysts predicted Netanyahu’s career was over after the October 7 attacks of 2023 – the worst security failure in Israeli history – but he served out a full term and gradually improved his standing in opinion surveys.
“It would be a mistake for the opposition to underrate his political capabilities,” said Regev, who also served as a spokesman for Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
While Netanyahu presided over the failure of October 7, Regev said he would argue that Israel was in a more secure position today than it was before the attacks.
“Hamas is largely defeated. Hezbollah in Lebanon is largely defeated. In Iran, the monster is still there, but it’s been defanged,” he said.
The United Kingdom, France and Canada this week announced a ban on commercial activity with Israeli settlements in the West Bank, which are considered illegal under international law, a move underlining Israel’s growing international isolation under Netanyahu.
Australia did not join the push, but Foreign Minister Penny Wong has indicated more sanctions on Israel are on the way.
Significantly, US President Donald Trump reportedly did not try to talk UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham out of the policy when they discussed it, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave only a muted reaction.
Trump and Netanyahu’s once-close relationship has been strained by their inability to defeat the hardline regime in Iran and Netanyahu’s refusal to commit to Trump’s Gaza peace plan.
An explosive report this week in Israeli newspaper Haaretz claimed that Netanyahu was personally alerted by the president of the United Arab Emirates that Hamas was planning a large-scale offensive against Israel a week before October 7, but did not act on the warning.
Netanyahu has branded the report an “absolute lie” and vowed to sue the newspaper.
The UAE’s foreign ministry issued a statement that did not deny the report, saying: “When necessary, all relevant intelligence has been and continues to be communicated between the relevant entities.”
Four of Netanyahu’s main rivals issued a statement labelling him “unfit for office” and declaring they would work together to end his government.
Since 2022, Netanyahu has governed with the support of far-right and ultra-orthodox parties, including two senior ministers sanctioned by Australia for inciting violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.
He said Netanyahu would likely seek to form a broader coalition government, including politicians to the left and right of his conservative Likud party, if it is possible after polling day.
“I would think it’s in his interest to have a wider coalition, also a wider, larger majority in the Knesset [the Israeli parliament], which makes a government less susceptible to pressure from small elements,” he said.
Netanyahu, who has been indicted for alleged war crimes by the International Criminal Court over Israel’s conduct in the war in Gaza, vowed to establish a “broad national government” in June in an apparent bid to win back mainstream centre and centre-right voters ahead of the election.
Regev said there would be a difference in style if Netanyahu loses the election, but he did not expect fundamental changes to Israel’s handing of key issues such as the West Bank and Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
“I think if a new government was elected it might get a certain glow in the international community [but] the idea that another government is going to come in and suddenly take Israel in a 180 degree different direction is just not logical,” he said.
Most Israelis do not believe there was a “partner for peace” on the Palestinian side, leading to the collapse in support for a two-state solution, he said.
Most polls show former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leading Netanyahu’s Likud, but also find neither the pro nor anti-Netanyahu blocs winning enough seats to form government.
Mark Sofer, a former Israeli ambassador to Australia, told this masthead recently: “At this juncture, I cannot envisage a situation in which Netanyahu wins the next elections
Matthew Knott is the foreign affairs and national security correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X, Facebook or email.From our partners
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