Dems’ polling lead is smaller than it was in 2018 — when blue wave failed to flip Senate

Democrats have a dramatically smaller lead over Republicans in the battle for control of Congress than they did at this point in the blue wave cycle of 2018 — when the won the House but failed to flip the Senate, according to new polling.

With just 44 days left to go, Democrats edged out Republicans 50% to 45% among registered voters who were asked about their generic preference for which party should control Congress, according to an NBC News poll.

That’s above the margin of error, but also much slimmer than the 12-point edge they had at this stage of the 2018 cycle, per the outlet. When the election took place, Democrats had an 8.6 percentage point popular vote edge over the GOP for the House.

It’s also lower than the 8.1 point advantage Democrats have in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of generic congressional ballot polling.

The party in control of the White House has lost seats in all but two elections since 1938. Given that, affordability concerns, and Trump’s underwater approval rating, many analysts favored Democrats to at least take control of the House.

But the NBC News poll signals that Democrats may not be able to repeat the 41-seat House swing they had during the last blue wave cycle.

Some analysts believe that redistricting from the latest census has made swings of that size nearly impossible, anyway.

In the 2018 election, the Dems also lost Senate seats — although the election map was much harder for the party that year. That year, Republicans were able to beat Democratic incumbents in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota. Democrats picked up seats in Nevada and Arizona.

Part of the problem for Democrats is that they are viewed more negatively than the GOP, with 29% of respondents having a positive view, compared to 50% negative. For Republicans, it was 36% positive, compared to 49% negative.

Only 22% viewed the Democratic Socialists of America favorably, and about half of voters indicated they’d be less likely to back someone who “supports many of the Democratic Socialists of America’s proposed policies,” per the poll.

Republicans have seized on the rise of the DSA as part of their effort to defy history and hold the House.

Still, the survey signals significant headwinds for the GOP.

Trump’s approval rating clocked in at 41%, and 55% of respondents concluded that his policies have worsened the economy, an uptick from 48% in March of this year, the poll found.

Meanwhile, 43% of respondents said their vote in the midterms will signal opposition to Trump, compared to 27% who said it would indicate support for him.

Over recent years, Republicans had dominated Democrats on the economy, but the poll found that the Dems now have a 1-point edge over the GOP.

“Donald Trump has achieved his goal of making this election about him at a historic level,” Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll alongside the GOP-led firm Public Opinion Strategies, told NBC about the results.

“The problem for Trump and Republicans on the ballot in November is that he has also made history in the highest share of voters who say their vote is in opposition to Trump.”

The survey sampled 1,000 between Sept. 11–15 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.