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The European Commission’s latest sweeping fertiliser plan attempts to shield Europe’s food prices from the fallout of the energy crisis, with leaders in Brussels warning that volatile fertiliser markets are feeding directly into higher grocery bills across the bloc.
At the heart of the plan is an attempt to break the chain reaction linking gas prices, fertiliser shortages and rising grocery bills, triggered by the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade passage for 30 percent of the world’s fertilisers and 20 percent of its natural gas supplies.
Brussels argues that Europe’s food system has become dangerously exposed to fossil fuel shocks because fertiliser production – especially nitrogen fertiliser – depends overwhelmingly on natural gas. At the same time, fertiliser prices for EU farmers remain far above pre-crisis levels after another sharp rise in early 2026.
Russia’s war in Ukraine, trade restrictions and the Middle East crisis are all cited as drivers of fertiliser volatility.
A senior Commission official insisted on 18 May that food availability is not currently at stake, noting that farmers had already stocked up on fertilisers last year and that planting is going ahead as normal, but the European Central Bank’s latest forecast anticipates that food inflation will remain slightly above its 2% target through late 2026.
EU officials warned that good harvests will depend on weather events and climate and the real timeline for consumers to start seeing a more dramatic surge in food prices could be within the next 6 to 12 months.
A similar forecast was made by the Dutch bank Rabobank, which estimated that food price inflation would hit European wallets by Christmas.
Boosting EU fertiliser production
Pointing to the US-led war against Iran, the EU executive has explicitly linked the surge in farm input costs to Europe’s dependence on imported fossil fuels and fertiliser feedstocks.
Because fertiliser production depends heavily on natural gas, chemical industries are being affected by the war’s fallout and fossil fuel volatility has exposed a structural weakness in Europe’s agri-food economy.
European Commissioner for Agriculture Christophe Hansen said that Europe needs to step up efforts to “produce more and depend less” on others for the nutrients that sustain the bloc’s agriculture.
Brussels intends to mobilise EU budget resources to support farmers facing acute fertiliser costs before the next sowing season, while also encouraging domestic fertiliser manufacturing and alternatives such as bio-based and recycled nutrients.
The Commission will also examine stockpiling measures, joint procurement mechanisms and tighter monitoring of fertiliser pricing.
Under the EU plan, farmers are set to benefit from emergency EU agriculture funds and advance payments under the condition that they switch to more sustainable practices like cutting synthetic fertiliser use and embracing bio-based fertilisers.
But the agriculture community regretted the plan’s lack of much-needed financing.
Peter Meedendorp, President at the European Council of Young Farmers (CEJA), said young farmers are “ready to contribute” to the bloc’s agri-resilience but warned the sector can’t go on “carrying rising input costs, geopolitical shocks and investment expectations alone”.
“The diagnosis is now increasingly clear. What farmers expect are concrete tools, concrete financing and concrete delivery,” said Meedendorp.
The industry group Copa Cogeca described the Commission’s plan as a “profound disappointment”, regretting the absence of a “real response” to the challenges faced by farmers.
“If, in the coming weeks and months, prices for the main categories of fertilizers remain at their current levels, the farming crisis will quickly turn into food inflation for European consumers and a food crisis on a global scale,” reads the Copa Cogeca statement.
Financial relief for farmers
Agriculture Commissioner Hansen said that €200 million remains in the bloc’s agricultural major fund’s crisis reserve and expressed intentions to “at least double this amount” to support farmers.
The Commission will also provide targeted “exceptional support” to the most affected farmers, Hansen told reporters on Tuesday, and more money will be mobilised under the EU budget “to reinforce agriculture research”.
He explained however that the precise amount is still under discussion pending political talks between the EU co-legislators, the European Parliament and the Council.
“The goal is to have a concrete financial instrument before the summer, when the farmers need to decide which crops to plant for the next season,” Hansen said.
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