Markets 
Bushfires, extreme heat and floods will inflict worsening damage on Victoria’s already stressed roads in the coming decades, the state government has been warned, with calls to start upgrading the network now to withstand severe conditions brought on by climate change.
Railways, ports, energy infrastructure and hospitals will also be at greater risk of being damaged or disrupted by extreme weather, research by Infrastructure Victoria has found.
In what it says is the first research of its kind in Australia, the state’s independent infrastructure adviser has analysed what state-owned or regulated assets are at risk from extreme weather.
Out of $318 billion worth of road, rail, energy, healthcare and other assets analysed, $57 billion will be at risk by 2030, and that figure will grow to $71 billion by 2070.
Bushfires pose the greatest threat, putting $23.4 billion of assets at risk in 2030 and $30.2 billion by 2070 as warming conditions expose more of central and northern Victoria to high fire danger.
Roads will bear the brunt of extreme weather, with $20.2 billion worth at risk of damage in 2030 and $25.1 billion by 2070.
The state government has been heavily criticised over its road maintenance program after the 2022 floods in northern Victoria left hundreds of kilometres of rural roads in tatters. While more than 6400 kilometres of roads were closed in eastern and northern Victoria due to the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires.
Infrastructure Victoria CEO Dr Jonathan Spear said the state government should consider where and how to build essential infrastructure in light of the future climate risks, and consider preventative upgrades.
“When we have some of those big disasters … state and federal government are pouring hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars into recovery. But we do think that more needs to be spent on preventative maintenance and cost-effective adaptation,” he said.
Spear said that could include maintenance like clearing roadside drains and vegetation to reduce the risk of flooding and landslides, or preventative upgrades like using “foamed bitumen stabilisation” so roads did not wash away in floods.
“It costs a little bit more to do the first time around. But it does mean you don’t have to rebuild the road multiple times because of it being flooded,” Spear said.
While flooded roads were the biggest short-term risk in 2030, Infrastructure Victoria has not modelled future risks because the state government has not updated its flood projections based on the latest climate science.
The portion of Victoria exposed to extreme heat represents the most significant change between 2030 and 2070.
High-level extreme heat will affect just the Mallee region in 2030 but spread southward to cover large parts of the Wimmera and northern Victoria, including Echuca and Wangaratta, by 2070, the research shows.
Assets at risk from extreme heat will grow from $10.8 billion worth to $25.9 billion. Roads account for the bulk of that, as prolonged heat can cause them to soften, rut and crack.
Rail lines being warped and buckled by extreme heat are the next biggest risk, with $6 billion of assets in danger in 2030 and $9 billion by 2070.
Already the railways are disrupted by extreme heat: Melbourne’s Metro trains are slowed to 70km/h on days forecast to reach 42 degrees or more, and regional V/Line trains are slowed from 160km/h to a maximum of 90km/h on days reaching 36 degrees.
But high temperatures can be managed through adaptations such as painting tracks with white reflective paint, the report says.
“Are we going to accept disruption on those services, or are we going to, over time, adapt our railway services to the conditions we know we’re going to be operating in much more frequently?” Spear asked.
The analysis, to be released on Tuesday, deems an asset “at risk” if it is assigned a rating of three or more on a four-point scale in the two scenarios. The 2030 modelling is based on a “low emissions” scenario and the 2070 modelling is based on a high-emissions scenario.
Victoria’s clean-up bill from extreme weather was $2.7 billion a year on average in the decade to 2016. The 2022 floods cost the state $1.8 billion in immediate relief funding and another $1.7 billion for flood recovery.
Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.
Patrick Hatch is transport reporter at The Age and a former business reporter.Connect via X or email.From our partners
Read the full article here
