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Anthony Albanese was quick to congratulate his new Solomon Islands counterpart on his ascent to the prime ministership on Friday – and it’s no wonder.
A little over two years ago, the Solomons were led by Manasseh Sogavare, a combative politician regarded as the most pro-China leader in the Pacific. Sogavare seemed to delight in tormenting Australian officials and thrust foreign policy to the centre of the 2022 federal election campaign by striking a secretive security pact with China.
Penny Wong, then in opposition, called the failure to stop the security agreement “the worst foreign policy blunder in the Pacific since the end of World War II”.
Now long-time Sogavare foe Matthew Wale has been elected prime minister by the Solomons’ parliament in a victory that surprised many close observers of Pacific politics. Wale has been far more sceptical of China and favourable to Australia than Sogavare or his successor Jeremiah Manele, who became prime minister in 2024 and lost a no-confidence motion earlier this month.
While Australian officials from the prime minister down will be relieved – and even delighted – by Wale’s victory, they cannot afford to be relaxed. The anti-corruption campaigner was easily the preferred candidate from an Australian perspective, but there is no returning to the days before 2022 where the Pacific was treated as something of an afterthought.
Wale opposed Sogavare’s 2019 move to switch diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, accusing his rival of being “in the service of a foreign power”. He was a fierce critic of the security pact with China.
During the 2024 elections, Wale said he would take a dramatically different approach to relations with Beijing than Sogavare’s.
“We need to be talking and protecting and advancing our own national interests, not kow-towing, not bowing down like beggars, with no respect,” he told the ABC. “That has been the prime minister’s approach, sleazing up to Beijing, trying to kiss their feet.”
But, crucially, he indicated he did not want to tear up the pact, saying “the Solomon Islands needed to be careful not to cause problems where it’s unnecessary to do so”.
Ed Cavanough, the author of Divided Isles: Solomon Islands and the China Switch, says that while Wale has been a “pro-Western, pro-Australia, pro-Taiwan” politician, he did not expect him to tear up the security pact with Beijing or restore diplomatic recognition of Taiwan. A pragmatic approach is more likely.
“He will be unlikely to want to alienate any development partner,” says Cavanough, noting the Solomons has been dealing with a dire fuel shortage and crippling levels of poverty and unemployment.
“The raw realpolitik is that the strategy of leveraging anxiety about China to achieve strategic gains has worked. It has put the Solomons at the centre stage in a way they have never been.”
Indeed, the Solomons has a population of just 820,000 – less than Adelaide – but has assumed major geopolitical significance by playing Beijing and Canberra off against each other.
Cavanough says that while the Beijing security agreement is likely to remain, Wale may finally release the full text of the document, as he promised during the last election campaign.
“The big concern with this document is that no one has ever seen it,” Cavanough notes.
Lowy Institute research fellow Connor Graham agrees: “There is a good chance he might authorise the release of the text of the security agreement as a sign that he means business on transparency.”
But Beijing is likely to lobby hard to prevent that.
Graham says that while Wale’s victory was “the best possible result for Canberra”, it is not likely to produce a seismic shift in the Solomons’ approach to international relations.
Domestic concerns, including frustration at corruption and the decline of the Solomons’ logging industry, propelled him to power, not foreign policy.
Cavanough says the next move to watch is who Wale appoints as his foreign minister. Australia’s choice would be Peter Kenilorea jnr, who has been even more sceptical of Beijing than Wale.
China will continue trying to expand its influence and use its massive economic power to gain a foothold in the Pacific. Last September Albanese travelled to Vanuatu expecting to sign a $500 million treaty agreement, but the deal was scuttled at the last minute because of concerns it would impinge upon Chinese investment in the archipelago.
Vanuatu’s cabinet this week agreed to ratify the agreement but with the clause aimed at curbing Chinese investment in sensitive sectors stripped out.
While individual leaders come and go, the “permanent contest” Wong has spoken of in the Pacific between Australia and China remains very much alive.
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Matthew Knott is the foreign affairs and national security correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.Connect via X, Facebook or email.From our partners
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