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The federal budget deficit is now expected to surpass $2 trillion this fiscal year, which would be one of the largest shortfalls on record as spending growth continues to outpace tax receipts.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Monday released its monthly budget update for July, which showed the federal government ran a nearly $1.8 trillion deficit through the first 10 months of fiscal year 2026, which runs through the end of September.
That figure represents an increase of $169 billion when compared with the same 10-month period in fiscal year 2025. Federal spending increased $308 billion from a year ago, outpacing the $139 billion rise in tax receipts.
CBO also noted it now estimates the budget deficit will rise to $2.1 trillion, up $200 billion from last fiscal year, for the full fiscal year 2026 based on information available through the end of July.
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“CBO expects 2026 outlays to be close to the February baseline amounts. Revenues, by contrast, are anticipated to be about $200 billion below the February projections, mostly because of smaller-than-expected collections of tariff duties – a result of a Supreme Court ruling handed down after CBO’s baseline was released,” the agency wrote.
Increased spending was primarily driven by the cost of servicing the federal government’s more than $39 trillion national debt, as well as rising expenses for the government’s three largest mandatory spending programs – Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
Costs related to paying interest on the debt were up $117 billion, or 14%, in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2026 compared with the same period a year ago. The rise was attributed to higher long-term interest rates, as well as the larger national debt.
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Spending on Social Security benefits rose $70 billion, or 5%, from a year ago due to higher average benefits following inflation adjustments and an increase in the number of beneficiaries.
Medicare costs increased $66 billion, or 8%, from a year ago due to increased enrollment and higher payment rates for healthcare services. Medicaid spending was up $45 billion, or 8%, because of rising costs per enrollee.
Tax revenue from both payroll and taxes rose by a combined $202 billion, or 5%, compared with a year ago. Withholdings from workers’ paychecks were up $141 billion, or 5%, amid rising wages and salaries. Tax refunds paid to individuals rose $23 billion, or 7%, due to provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
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Corporate income tax collections were down $89 billion, or 23%, due to provisions in the OBBBA that expanded deductions for investments and resulted in fewer tax receipts.
Collections of customs duties including tariffs increased $18 billion, or 13%, compared with the same period a year ago.
Through April, monthly collections were higher than they were a year ago, but net collections have declined sharply since May when the government began paying out tariff refunds under a Supreme Court ruling from February. CBO noted that about $100 billion in tariff refunds have been issued to date.
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Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), said in a statement that federal borrowing has grown to an “astounding” level and that a deficit on track to surpass $2 trillion when the economy isn’t in a recession “is not normal.”
“Incredibly, such an enormous level of borrowing barely scratches the surface of our fiscal deterioration,” she explained. “We are about to hit the sobering milestone of $40 trillion in gross national debt, and things are only likely to get worse.”
“If lawmakers want to correct our fiscal course, they should start by targeting a reasonable fiscal goal, like 3% of GDP deficits, and then create a bipartisan commission to figure out how we should get there. We can no longer afford to put off the difficult decisions – the time to act is now,” MacGuineas added.
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